Gold (XAUUSD) in trouble: when will the selling stop

Gold (XAUUSD) prices fell to 4,083 USD. The market is attempting to recoup some of its losses, but the outlook is bleak. Discover more in our analysis for 11 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices appear weak, with the market pricing in high US rates
• Inflation risks remain pronounced
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 June 2026: 4,025

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) stabilised at around 4,083 USD per troy ounce on Thursday after the US military announced the end of the latest series of strikes on Iran. This raised hopes for a resumption of negotiations and slightly eased concerns about further inflationary pressures.

Earlier, the US launched new strikes on Iranian targets after Donald Trump accused Tehran of stalling negotiations on an interim peace agreement. In response, according to media reports, Iran attacked US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite easing geopolitical tensions, gold remains near seven-month lows. The prolonged conflict and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, supporting high oil prices and increasing inflation risks.

US inflation data added to pressure. In May, consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in more than three years. The data matched market forecasts and confirmed persistent price pressure in the economy.

Following the CPI release, investors slightly scaled back expectations of further Fed policy tightening. However, the market is still fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. High interest rates and rising bond yields continue to limit interest in gold, which does not generate interest income.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) remains under strong pressure after the large-scale sell-off in recent days. Prices broke below several intermediate support levels and fell to the 4,025–4,050 area, hitting new lows since late March. After reaching a local bottom, the market is attempting to form a technical rebound, but prices still remain significantly below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that sellers continue to control the market.

The technical picture remains firmly bearish. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues, and any recovery attempts are still corrective. The nearest resistance lies in the 4,145–4,210 zone, where the previously broken support level was located. The key support area stands at 4,025–4,050. As long as prices remain below 4,210, the risks of a continued downward move remain.

Indicators confirm the negative scenario. MACD is deep in negative territory and continues to signal the dominance of downward momentum, although the pace of the decline is gradually slowing. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards from oversold territory, suggesting a short-term technical rebound after the sharp decline. Nevertheless, to improve the technical picture, buyers need to push quotes back above 4,145–4,210. Until then, the baseline scenario remains consolidation with the risk of a retest of the 4,025 area.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,145 and 4,210
• Key support levels: 4,050 and 4,025

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,050 would confirm continued downward momentum amid high inflation risks, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, and rising US bond yields.

• Take Profit: 4,025
• Stop Loss: 4,085

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 4,145 resistance level would signal a corrective recovery after the large-scale sell-off and open the way to a test of the 4,210 area.

• Take Profit: 4,210
• Stop Loss: 4,110

Risk factors

The main pressure factor for XAUUSD remains the expectation of prolonged high interest rates in the US. A risk to the downside scenario could come from increased demand for safe-haven assets in the event of a new escalation in geopolitical tensions or softer expectations regarding further Fed policy tightening.

Summary

Gold prices declined noticeably in response to expectations of high US interest rates. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 11 June 2026, does not rule out a further decline towards 4,025.

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