Gold (XAUUSD) at a seven-month low: what happens next

Gold (XAUUSD) prices dropped to 4,059 USD, with a strong dollar leaving gold with virtually no chance. Discover more in our analysis for 24 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) is declining due to pressure from the US dollar
• Progress in Middle East geopolitics is reducing demand for safe-haven assets
• XAUUSD forecast for 24 June 2026: 4,020 or 4,050

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices fell to 4,059 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, a seven-month low. Pressure on the market is coming from the strengthening US dollar and growing expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

At its latest meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but a growing number of the regulator’s officials support further rate hikes in the future. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh also reiterated his commitment to returning inflation to target levels, increasing support for the US dollar. An additional negative factor for gold was progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. The easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to increased energy supplies and lower inflation risks, dampening demand for safe-haven assets.

Stock market pressure also increased. Following a sharp decline in US technology stocks, some investors reduced gold positions to offset losses in other segments of their portfolios.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) remains in a steady downtrend after buyers failed to gain a foothold above the 4,385 resistance level. The latest downward wave accelerated after a breakout below the 4,145–4,180 area, with quotes falling to 4,060, reaching monthly lows. Prices remain below the middle Bollinger Band, while the bands themselves are pointing downwards, confirming seller dominance.

The technical picture remains negative. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues, indicating bearish control of the market. The nearest support level is located in the 4,020–4,050 area, where demand had previously formed. If this area is broken, the market may accelerate its decline. The nearest resistance level is located in the 4,145–4,180 zone, with a stronger barrier to upside standing near 4,385.

The indicators confirm continued downward momentum. MACD remains deep in negative territory and is showing no signs of a reversal, reflecting sustained selling pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, suggesting short-term technical rebounds, but there are no signals of a full-fledged reversal yet. The baseline scenario remains a test of the 4,020–4,050 area, with the risk of further decline remaining.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,145 and 4,385
• Key support levels: 4,050 and 4,020

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below support in the 4,050–4,020 USD area would confirm continued downward momentum amid a strong US dollar and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. In this case, the market may increase its downward momentum towards new local lows.

• Take Profit: 3,980
• Stop Loss: 4,145

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,145 USD resistance level would become the first signal of weakening selling pressure and may trigger corrective growth towards 4,385 USD.

• Take Profit: 4,385
• Stop Loss: 4,080

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD downside scenario remains weaker US macroeconomic data, particularly PCE inflation figures, which could weaken the dollar and reduce expectations of further Fed rate hikes. New signs of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may also support gold.

Summary

Gold prices continue to fall in response to the strengthening US dollar. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 24 June 2026, suggests a test of the 4,020–4,050 area.

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