Gold (XAUUSD) remains under pressure: the downside target is 3,900 USD

Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to decline amid outflows from gold ETFs and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. The main forecast suggests a test of the 4,050 USD resistance level, followed by a decline to 3,900 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 25 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Outflows from gold ETFs and the Fed’s hawkish stance continue to pressure XAUUSD
• Gold remains in a downtrend, although oversold conditions suggest short-term growth to 4,050 USD
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 June 2026: 4,020 or 4,050

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD fundamental analysis for today shows a sharp increase in pressure on gold. On 23 June, gold prices fell by 1.4%, with the decline accelerating to 3.3% on 24 June. As a result, XAUUSD quotes dropped below 4,000 USD per ounce and reached the lowest level since November 2025.

The main negative factor remains the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. The market anticipates a rate hike as early as September, which increases the appeal of USD assets and reduces demand for non-interest-bearing gold.

Additional pressure on XAUUSD came from outflows from gold exchange-traded funds. Holdings of the largest fund, SPDR Gold Shares, fell by 8.9 tonnes over 23–24 June, indicating weakening interest in gold from large investors and confirming the dominance of sellers in the market.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast remains negative.

Technical outlook

Today’s gold (XAUUSD) analysis shows that on the H4 chart, gold is trading in a descending channel. The MACD indicator is in negative territory, adding to pressure on XAUUSD quotes. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold area, so a short-term rise is possible before the decline continues.

The XAUUSD price forecast for 25 June suggests a test of the 4,050 USD resistance level, followed by a rebound downwards. If this scenario plays out, XAUUSD prices could decline to support at 3,900 USD.

An alternative XAUUSD forecast for 25 June will become relevant if prices break above the 4,050 USD resistance level. In this case, XAUUSD quotes may rise to the next resistance level at 4,215 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,050 and 4,215
• Key support levels: 3,900

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Limit)

A test of the 4,050 USD resistance level, followed by a downward rebound, would indicate buyer weakness and increase bearish sentiment in XAUUSD. In this case, gold quotes may decline to the 3,900 USD support level.

• Take Profit: 3,900
• Stop Loss: 4,105

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,050 USD resistance level may trigger growth in gold prices. In this case, XAUUSD quotes may reach 4,215 USD.

• Take Profit: 4,215
• Stop Loss: 3,995

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD downside scenario remains market oversold conditions, which may trigger a technical rebound. Additional support for gold may come from a weaker dollar, weak US data, or a renewed inflow into gold ETFs.

Summary

Gold prices continue to decline, driven by outflows from gold ETFs and the Fed’s hawkish stance. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 25 June 2026, suggests a test of the 4,050 USD resistance level, followed by a fall to 3,900 USD.

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