XAUUSD may accelerate its decline if support at 4,000 USD is broken

XAUUSD remains under pressure from the strong US dollar and the Fed’s hawkish policy, which preserves the risk of a further decline. The current quote is 4,014 USD. More details are in our analysis for 26 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US PCE inflation data matched market forecasts
• The strong US dollar reduces the attractiveness of gold for foreign investors
• Geopolitical tension in the Middle East continues to ease
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 June 2026: 3,795

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes stabilised near 4,015 USD. After the release of US PCE inflation data, which matched market expectations, buyers managed to trigger a local rebound. However, the potential for an upward correction remains limited. Sellers are still keeping control of the market, and gold’s inability to develop a sustained upward impulse is increasing the risk of a break of the key support level at 4,000 USD.

The main factor pressuring the precious metal remains the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric. Stronger expectations that high interest rates will remain in place for longer are supporting demand for the US currency, which is holding near yearly highs. A strong US dollar traditionally reduces the attractiveness of gold for foreign investors, limiting demand for the asset.

Additional pressure on the market is coming from easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Progress in diplomatic initiatives between the US and Iran has contributed to a decline in oil prices towards levels seen before the conflict escalated. Against this backdrop, investor interest in safe-haven assets, including gold, has weakened.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are holding above the key support level at 4,000 USD, but sellers continue to control the market, keeping the price below the EMA-65 line. Such dynamics point to stronger seller pressure and the preservation of bearish impulse. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests a further decline in quotes towards 3,795 USD.

The technical picture still remains on the side of sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator has reached the resistance zone and may soon form a bearish crossover, which will become an additional signal in favour of a downward move developing. Confirmation of the downside scenario will come from a break of the lower boundary of the corrective upward channel followed by price consolidation below 4,005 USD.

The alternative scenario assumes that buyers regain the initiative if the price breaks the upper boundary of the descending channel and the quotes consolidate above 4,090 USD. Such a signal will cancel the current downside scenario and open the way for a deeper upward correction towards 4,245 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,015 and 4,165
• Key support levels: 3,955 and 3,865

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A break of the lower boundary of the bullish corrective channel with consolidation below 4,005 USD will signal the continuation of the downward impulse.

• Take Profit: 3,795
• Stop Loss: 4,045

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the upper boundary of the descending channel with a break of 4,090 USD will indicate the development of a bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 4,245
• Stop Loss: 4,015

Risk factors

The risks to today’s XAUUSD downside scenario are linked to a possible weakening of the US dollar amid changing expectations regarding further Fed policy. Additional support for gold may come from quotes moving above 4,090 USD, which will become a signal in favour of a more aggressive upward correction developing.

Summary

The combination of a strong US dollar, the Fed’s hawkish stance, and easing geopolitical risks continues to create unfavourable conditions for gold. As long as the quotes remain below local resistance, the probability of a decline with a break of the key support level at 4,000 USD remains high.

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