Gold (XAUUSD) has bounced off the bottom, but this is not the end yet

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have returned above 4,080 USD. The market has priced in the US data and is now considering its next move. For more details, see our analysis for 29 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) pared some of its losses on US inflation data
• The precious metal is going through its longest losing streak since August 2023
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 June 2026: 3,960 or 4,080

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are holding above 4,080 USD per troy ounce on Monday following the release of US inflation data, which came in line with market expectations. This reduced concerns about an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike and supported demand for the precious metal. Nevertheless, gold has now closed lower for the fourth consecutive week, marking its longest losing streak since August 2023.

The main pressure factor remains the strong US dollar and expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish policy stance. Following the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, the market continues to price in the likelihood of further rate hikes. This reduces the appeal of gold, which does not generate interest income.

A sharp decline in technology stocks also provided additional support to quotes, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, US Treasury yields edged lower after the PCE report, which also contributed to a recovery in gold prices.

Despite the current rebound, the market outlook remains subdued. As long as the dollar stays strong and the Federal Reserve remains committed to fighting inflation, gold’s upside potential will be limited.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) is forming a corrective rebound from the local low near 3,960 after a prolonged decline. Prices have recovered towards the 4,080 area, but they remain below the middle Bollinger Band, while the bands themselves retain a downward slope. This suggests that the current move so far appears to be a correction within a broader bearish trend.

The technical picture remains mildly negative. The nearest resistance level is located in the 4,080–4,100 area, while a stronger barrier stands at 4,222, where sellers were previously more active. The support level is located at 3,960. Until prices consolidate above 4,100–4,220, the advantage remains with the sellers, despite the local improvement in momentum.

Indicators are signalling a weakening downward momentum. MACD remains below the zero mark, but the histogram is gradually reducing its negative values, indicating weaker selling pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator has risen into overbought territory after a strong rebound, increasing the likelihood of short-term profit-taking and a new wave of selling. The baseline scenario remains consolidation in the 3,960–4,080 range, with the risk of a renewed downtrend remaining.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward with corrective recovery
• Key resistance levels: 4,080 and 4,222
• Key support levels: 3,960 and 3,865

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 3,960 USD support level would confirm renewed downward momentum amid a strong US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish policy stance. This will open the way for a further decline towards 3,865 USD.

• Take Profit: 3,865
• Stop Loss: 4,035

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 4,080 USD resistance level would signal a corrective recovery after a prolonged sell-off and open the door for a test of the 4,222 area.

• Take Profit: 4,222
• Stop Loss: 4,020

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD downside scenario remains a further decline in the US dollar amid easing expectations regarding Fed policy or weaker global risk appetite, as this may restore demand for safe-haven assets.

Summary

Gold prices bounced upwards and then paused. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 29 June 2026, suggests continued consolidation within the 3,960–4,080 range.

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