The market is holding its breath: US data could send XAUUSD sharply lower

XAUUSD is testing the 3,960 USD support level for the third time, while XAUUSD quotes are awaiting the release of US statistics. For more details, see our analysis for 1 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 122 thousand, projected at 118 thousand
• US envoys arrived in Doha
• Fed hawkish sentiment is weighing on gold more heavily than geopolitics
• XAUUSD forecast for 1 July 2026: 4,067 and 3,904

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 1 July 2026, shows that gold continues to decline, testing the 3,960 USD support level for the third time. On Wednesday morning, prices are hovering around 3,973 USD per ounce.

The main intrigue of the day is the conflicting signals coming from the Persian Gulf. US envoys arrived in Doha, but Qatar made it clear that no breakthrough should be expected: high-level meetings with Iranian counterparts are not yet planned. Moreover, Tehran confirmed its intention to retain control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a key sticking point. This geopolitical deadlock is fuelling inflation expectations, but rather than fleeing into gold, investors are opting for the dollar.

Federal Reserve hawkish sentiment is weighing on gold more heavily than geopolitics. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she is ready to vote for rate hikes if inflation fails to show signs of easing. The market reacted immediately, with the likelihood of a rate hike in September rising to 67%.

Today and tomorrow, the market will follow US statistics, with the ADP private sector employment data due today and the key Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for release tomorrow. Both indicators are projected to decline, providing short-term support for gold. These figures will become a decisive test for the dollar and gold this week.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band and could continue the downward wave following the pattern’s signal. Given that XAUUSD quotes remain within a descending channel, the 3,904 USD support level may act as the downside target.

At the same time, XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests another scenario, which includes a correction to 4,067 USD before the decline.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,038 and 4,067
• Key support levels: 3,960 and 3,904

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 3,960 USD support level would indicate stronger bearish momentum and create conditions for a continuation of the downtrend.

• Take Profit: 3,904
• Stop Loss: 3,995

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,038 USD would indicate the formation of another upward wave.

• Take Profit: 4,067
• Stop Loss: 4,000

Risk factors

The main risks to the XAUUSD downside scenario remain a possible weakening of the US dollar and lower expectations of Fed tightening, which may restore buyer interest in gold. An additional factor may be weak US employment data.

Summary

XAUUSD prices are testing the support level while awaiting the release of US employment statistics. XAUUSD technical analysis for today suggests a decline towards 3,904 USD.

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