Nonfarm Payrolls sent the dollar sharply lower: gold is surging towards 4,200 USD

Gold continues to strengthen after the release of US employment data. XAUUSD quotes are testing the 4,180 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 3 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 129 thousand, currently at 57 thousand
• The US unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting dropped to 18%
• XAUUSD forecast for 3 July 2026: 4,300 and 4,107

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 3 July 2026, shows that gold continues its confident recovery, testing the 4,180 USD mark. The rally began following the release of weak US labour market data, which radically changed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

On Thursday, the US June Nonfarm Payrolls report was published and became a real shock to the market. The previous reading was 129 thousand, the forecast stood at 114 thousand, and the actual figure stunned the market by coming in at 57 thousand. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, but it declined because some people simply stopped looking for work. The probability of a Fed rate hike at the July meeting fell to 18%, and markets revised their expectations: instead of one or two rate hikes in 2026, the market is now pricing in from zero to one.

An additional factor supporting gold is the decline in energy prices. Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually recovering, and oil has retreated to levels close to those seen before the crisis. This is easing inflation concerns and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy, creating additional support for the non-yielding metal.

Gold continues to strengthen after weak US labour market data and is approaching the psychological 4,200 USD per ounce mark. The dollar weakened, oil is getting cheaper, and these are ideal conditions for growth in the non-yielding asset. At the same time, geopolitical tensions around the US-Iran negotiations remain.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and may continue their upward movement as the pattern signal plays out. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within a descending channel, the 4,300 USD resistance level may act as the upside target.

At the same time, XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests another scenario, with prices declining to 4,107 USD without testing the resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,200 and 4,300
• Key support levels: 4,107 and 3,900

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,107 USD support level would confirm the resumption of the downtrend and open the way to a retest of the 3,900 USD area.

• Take Profit: 3,900
• Stop Loss: 4,150

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,200 USD resistance level would signal a continued recovery wave with a target near 4,300 USD. Weak US labour market data and a further decline in inflation expectations are providing additional support to buyers.

• Take Profit: 4,300
• Stop Loss: 4,160

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD downside scenario remains a possible weakening of the US dollar following the release of macroeconomic statistics and a further decline in expectations for a Fed rate hike. Weak US labour market data and sustained demand for safe-haven assets have also bolstered gold.

Summary

Gold continues its recovery cycle and is moving towards the psychological 4,200 USD level after weak US labour market data. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 4,300 USD.

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