Gold (XAUUSD) has stabilised: the market is awaiting signals from the Fed

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading at 4,138 USD, with the market keen to see the details from the Federal Reserve minutes. Discover more in our analysis for 7 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices paused after a volatile Monday
• US statistics and falling oil prices support the market
• XAUUSD forecast for 7 July 2026: 4,029 or 4,205

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are hovering around 4,138 USD per troy ounce on Tuesday after a volatile start to the week. Investors have taken a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, which could provide new guidance on the future interest rate path.

The precious metal received support from the US labour market data published last week. Employment growth in June came in significantly weaker than expected, while the figures for the previous two months were revised downwards, prompting market participants to reduce expectations of a near-term interest rate hike. The likelihood of Federal Reserve policy tightening in September is now estimated at around 50%, down from nearly 65% before the employment report.

Falling oil prices further supported gold. The restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after the interim agreement between the US and Iran came into force is helping to reduce inflation risks. At the same time, Middle Eastern countries are increasing production and lowering export prices. OPEC+ agreed on another increase in production quotas next month.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

On the XAUUSD H4 chart, after a strong recovery from the low near 4,029, growth slowed near the 4,205 resistance level. Quotes failed to consolidate above this mark and entered a sideways consolidation phase, hovering around 4,140. Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating lower volatility and anticipation of a new directional move.

The technical picture looks neutral with a moderately positive bias. The nearest support lies in the 4,130–4,140 area, while a stronger level stands at 4,029. The key resistance level is at 4,205, where seller activity has repeatedly increased. As long as prices remain above the middle Bollinger Band, buyers retain a certain advantage, but a confident breakout of the 4,205 level is needed for growth to continue.

Indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD remains in positive territory, although the histogram is gradually shrinking, reflecting weakening upward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards after breaking out of oversold territory, signalling a recovery in short-term demand. The baseline scenario remains consolidation in the 4,029–4,205 range, with prices expected to break out of the range after new fundamental drivers emerge.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: consolidation with a moderately positive bias
• Key resistance levels: 4,205 and 4,250
• Key support levels: 4,130 and 4,029

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,205 would confirm renewed upward momentum and open the potential for further growth.

• Take Profit: 4,250
• Stop Loss: 4,170

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,130 support level would signal a correction with a high probability of a retest of the 4,029 level.

• Take Profit: 4,029
• Stop Loss: 4,160

Risk factors

The main risks to the upside scenario remain a possible strengthening of the US dollar after the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting and more hawkish signals from the regulator regarding the future interest rate trajectory. An additional pressure factor could be a consolidation below the 4,130 support level, which would worsen the short-term technical picture for gold (XAUUSD).

Summary

Gold prices paused ahead of the release of the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 7 July 2026, does not rule out consolidation within the 4,029–4,205 range.

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