XAUUSD is correcting amid rising inflation risks

XAUUSD quotes are declining as investors reassess the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish policy stance, with prices currently at 4,115 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 10 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Buyers are still holding prices above the key support level of 4,090 USD
• Rising Brent prices are boosting inflation expectations and increasing the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance
• Market participants expect gold’s future performance to depend on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East
• XAUUSD forecast for 10 July 2026: 3,945

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are correcting downwards after yesterday’s strong rise, but buyers are still holding prices above the key support level at 4,090 USD. However, selling pressure is gradually intensifying, increasing the probability of a deeper decline.

Market participants continue to closely monitor developments in the Middle East, assessing their potential impact on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Rising Brent prices are further supporting inflation expectations, having once again fuelled concerns about continued tight monetary policy in the US.

The minutes of the June Federal Reserve meeting, published on Wednesday, confirmed that some Fed officials are expressing growing concern about persistently high inflation. Some meeting participants noted that price pressures are becoming increasingly broad-based, meaning there are already grounds for further interest rate hikes. In the near term, XAUUSD price movements will largely depend on the news flow from the Middle East.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes continue to move within a descending channel. However, buyers are still keeping prices above the EMA-65, indicating that moderate support remains and limits the potential for a deeper decline in the short term. Nevertheless, today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests a continued downward move with a target at 3,945 USD.

The technical picture remains favourable to sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator turned downwards from overbought territory, signalling weaker upward momentum and creating the conditions for renewed selling. A breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective ascending channel, followed by consolidation below 4,080 USD, would further confirm the bearish scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests that buyers will regain the initiative if prices confidently break the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidate above 4,150 USD. This signal will cancel the current bearish scenario and open the way for further growth, with the nearest target at 4,215 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,145 and 4,215
• Key support levels: 4,080 and 4,015

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,080 would indicate a breakout of the lower boundary of the bullish corrective channel and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 3,945
• Stop Loss: 4,145

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel, with prices consolidating above 4,150, would signal stronger buying pressure.

• Take Profit: 4,215
• Stop Loss: 4,105

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD downside scenario remains continued strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify. Weaker expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening may also support buyers, which could lead to a breakout above the 4,150 USD resistance level and renewed growth.

Summary

Technical analysis of XAUUSD indicates continued selling pressure, although holding above the 4,090 USD support level is still limiting a deeper decline. In the near term, gold’s performance will depend on a breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel and on whether prices can consolidate below 4,080 USD.

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