Gold (XAUUSD) is rapidly losing support, the Fed is gearing up for a new move

Weak US data provided temporary support for gold, but XAUUSD prices continue to lose ground, currently trading at 3,990 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 17 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 4.2%, currently at 3.5%
• The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting (28–29 July)
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 July 2026: 3,050 and 3,915

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 17 July 2026, shows that gold is forming a correction after a decline and is testing the 3,990 USD level.

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which logically should have supported prices, is currently weighing on the metal. The US launched new strikes on Iranian targets following attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded with missile strikes on US allies in the region. Iran asked the Yemeni Houthis about their readiness to block the Red Sea, expanding the conflict zone.

The publication of weak CPI inflation data, with the actual reading at 3.5%, down from the previous 4.2%, gave gold only a short-term boost.

At this stage, the market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting on 28–29 July. If Warsh and his colleagues signal a pause in tightening, this will weaken the dollar and give XAUUSD prices a chance to recover. Conversely, if they confirm their readiness to raise rates, gold may lose support and head towards new lows.

The XAUUSD forecast for 17 July 2026 takes into account that geopolitical tensions, which historically pushed the metal higher, are now forcing the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance due to rising oil prices and inflation expectations, putting pressure on gold prices and prompting investors to seek higher-yielding assets.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Quotes may form an upward wave as the pattern signal plays out. Since XAUUSD prices remain within a descending channel, the upside target could be the 4,050 USD resistance level.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis of XAUUSD also suggests another market scenario, in which prices could dip to 3,915 USD without testing the resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,050 and 4,185
• Key support levels: 3,915 and 3,800

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 3,915 support level would create conditions for opening short positions in XAUUSD.

• Take Profit: 3,800
• Stop Loss: 3,935

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, with prices consolidating above 4,050, would indicate a new upward wave and create conditions for opening long positions in XAUUSD.

• Take Profit: 4,185
• Stop Loss: 4,020

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD downside scenario remains growing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid a further escalation in geopolitical tensions. Additional support for buyers may come from Fed policy easing, which would increase the likelihood of a breakout above the 4,050 USD resistance level.

Summary

Gold is making another attempt to strengthen after its decline, but for now these are only corrections amid the broader downtrend. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 4,050 USD before a further decline.

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