Gold (XAUUSD) is stuck at the horizon: no one is forecasting anything

Gold (XAUUSD) prices climbed to 4,047 USD. The market would like greater clarity about the outlook. For more details, see our analysis for 21 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose, but the situation can change very quickly
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is dampening the outlook for gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 21 July 2026: 4,004 or 4,067

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose to 4,047 USD per ounce on Tuesday, but remains near a nine-month low. The conflict between the US and Iran is increasing the risks of higher energy prices, inflation, and further interest rate hikes, putting pressure on the precious metal.

US strikes on Iran have continued for the tenth day. Donald Trump stated that Tehran would bear responsibility for the deaths of three US soldiers. The Iran-backed Houthis also announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, which has heightened the risks to energy supplies through the Red Sea.

At the same time, signals of a possible de-escalation have appeared. Iran reported that mediators had put forward options to reduce tensions, while the media are speculating about a ten-day ceasefire.

US Treasury yields rose sharply this week. The market estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September at around 55%, up from 51% a day earlier. This is limiting demand for gold.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is neutral.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is recovering after rebounding from key support at 3,960–3,970 and is currently trading around 4,047 USD. Prices climbed above the middle Bollinger Band and approached the upper boundary of the indicator, indicating stronger short-term demand. At the same time, the broader structure after the July high remains downward.

The nearest resistance level is located in the 4,067 area, followed by 4,100. Consolidation above 4,067 will allow buyers to continue the recovery, while a failed breakout attempt may return prices to the 4,004 and 3,971 support levels. A loss of the 3,960 area will resume the downward momentum.

MACD remains in negative territory, but the bearish momentum is gradually weakening. The Stochastic Oscillator turned upwards and moved into neutral territory, supporting the scenario of a continued rebound. The base case remains movement in the 4,004–4,067 range with a moderately positive bias.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward with local recovery
• Key resistance levels: 4,067 and 4,100
• Key support levels: 4,004 and 3,971

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,067 resistance level would confirm a continued recovery and create conditions for opening long positions in XAUUSD.

• Take Profit: 4,100
• Stop Loss: 4,045

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,004 support level would indicate renewed downward movement, with the nearest target at 3,971.

• Take Profit: 3,971
• Stop Loss: 4,025

Risk factors

The main risks to the XAUUSD upside scenario remain rising US Treasury yields and heightened expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. A stronger US dollar may create additional pressure. At the same time, a further escalation of the US-Iran conflict could support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Summary

Gold prices rose, but the market may change its mind quickly. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 21 July 2026, suggests moderate growth within the 4,004–4,067 range.

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