Gold (XAUUSD) gains support from the slowing US labour market

XAUUSD continues to strengthen amid technical reversal signals and new signs of a slowdown in the US labour market, with prices currently standing at 4,130 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 22 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• XAUUSD prices are rising for the fourth consecutive trading session
• The ADP report for July 2026 indicated a slowdown in the US labour market
• The labour market slowdown fuels expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy
• XAUUSD forecast for 22 July 2026: 4,185

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes continue to rise for the fourth consecutive trading session. Buyers managed to hold the key support area around 3,960 USD, maintaining the upward momentum. In the near term, the main obstacle remains the 4,185 USD resistance level. A confident breakout could signal the completion of a Double Bottom reversal pattern on the daily chart, opening the upside potential towards the next target around 4,415 USD.

Recent US labour market data provides additional support for gold. The ADP report for July 2026 indicated a noticeable slowdown in private sector activity: over the four weeks ending 4 July, average employment growth was only around 16,5 thousand jobs per week, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline. At the same time, total job growth in July was weak, at 98 thousand new positions.

The weakening US labour market could become a significant long-term factor for gold. Weaker employment data increase pressure on the Federal Reserve, raising the likelihood of a swift transition to interest rate cuts. This scenario traditionally weighs on the US dollar and creates additional demand for safe-haven assets, including gold. Meanwhile, market participants expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are correcting after rebounding from the upper boundary of the ascending channel, although buyers continue to hold prices above the EMA-65. The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests renewed upward movement, with a target at 4,185 USD.

Technical indicators confirm continued bullish sentiment. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards after exiting oversold territory, indicating weakening selling pressure and the possible completion of the current correction. A breakout above the upper boundary of the corrective channel, with prices consolidating above 4,135 USD, will provide an additional signal in favour of continued growth. In this case, buyers will receive confirmation for further upward momentum.

An alternative scenario will come into play if XAUUSD prices confidently break below the lower boundary of the bullish channel and consolidate below 4,110 USD. This signal will indicate that sellers are regaining the initiative, invalidate the current positive scenario, and create conditions for a further decline towards the 4,050 USD support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: M5 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward momentum
• Key resistance levels: 4,135 and 4,155
• Key support levels: 4,115 and 4,095

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending corrective channel, followed by consolidation above 4,135, would indicate increased bullish pressure.

• Take Profit: 4,185
• Stop Loss: 4,120

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, followed by consolidation below 4,110, would signal a renewed decline.

• Take Profit: 4,050
• Stop Loss: 4,145

Risk factors

The main risk for XAUUSD remains a possible increase in expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, which could support the US dollar and limit gold’s upside potential. A breakout below the 4,110 USD support level would put additional pressure on quotes, indicating weakening buyer activity and the likelihood of a deeper correction.

Summary

XAUUSD quotes maintain their upward momentum, buoyed by technical reversal signals and weak US labour market data. However, a breakout above the 4,185 USD resistance level remains the key factor for further growth.

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