Gold (XAUUSD) gains as investors seek protection from uncertainty

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading near 4,130 USD, with demand for safe-haven assets taking centre stage. Find out more in our analysis for 23 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen, but only due to US dollar weakness
• The market is keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments and the prospect of two Federal Reserve rate hikes before the end of the year
• XAUUSD forecast for 23 July 2026: 4,100 or 4,168

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering at 4,130 USD per ounce on Thursday, close to a two-week high. Buying on dips and demand for safe-haven assets are offsetting pressure from high oil prices and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy.

Geopolitics remains in focus. Iran-backed Houthis said they had attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, fuelling concerns about potential energy supply disruptions.

Donald Trump also threatened strikes on Iranian infrastructure if vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. This increased the risk of further military escalation and supported demand for gold.

At the same time, the metal remains well below its January record. Rising oil prices are increasing inflation risks and expectations that US interest rates will remain high for longer. The market is pricing in two 25-basis-point rate hikes by March 2027 and estimates the likelihood of the first move as early as September at around 70%.

The gold (XAUUSD) outlook is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the XAUUSD H4 chart, the bullish structure remains intact after a recovery from the 3,970 area, with priceы currently trading near 4,124 USD. Quotes have pulled back from the upper Bollinger Band and the 4,168 resistance level but remain well above the indicator’s middle line, so buyers still have the upper hand.

The nearest resistance level lies in the 4,132–4,168 area, followed by 4,196. Support levels are located at 4,100 and 4,067. Consolidation above 4,168 would open the way for further gains, while a decline below 4,100 would deepen the correction towards 4,067.

MACD remains in positive territory and confirms continued upward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned down after leaving overbought territory, indicating the likelihood of a short-term correction. The baseline scenario remains consolidation within the 4,100–4,168 range with a moderately positive bias.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish with signs of consolidation
• Key resistance levels: 4,168 and 4,196
• Key support levels: 4,100 and 4,067

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,168 resistance level would confirm continued bullish momentum and create conditions for further XAUUSD gains.

• Take Profit: 4,196
• Stop Loss: 4,145

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,100 support level would indicate weakening buying pressure and a deeper correction.

• Take Profit: 4,067
• Stop Loss: 4,125

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish XAUUSD scenario remains stronger expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, which would support the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Easing geopolitical tensions would put additional pressure on gold. As long as prices remain above 4,100, buyers retain the advantage.

Summary

Gold prices have risen, driven by external developments. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 23 July 2026, expects the 4,100–4,168 range to remain intact, with a moderate upward bias within it.

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