XAUUSD on the brink of another sell-off as markets favour the dollar

After rising, gold is once again testing the psychological 4,000 USD level, with growing inflation expectations and a stronger dollar driving the decline. Find out more in our analysis for 24 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Market participants are pricing in virtually no change in the interest rate at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on 28–29 July
• Geopolitical tensions are strengthening the dollar
• XAUUSD forecast for 24 July 2026: 4,075 or 3,970

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 24 July 2026, shows that after testing the 4,155 USD level, XAUUSD quotes are forming a downward wave and returning towards the psychological 4,000 USD level.

Market participants are not really expecting the Federal Reserve to change the interest rate at the upcoming meeting on 28–29 July, although the likelihood of a rate hike in September has increased noticeably. Growing expectations of a more restrictive stance from the US regulator are providing additional support for the dollar and pushing up Treasury yields, reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset.

The XAUUSD forecast for 24 July 2026 takes into account that despite the further escalation of the conflict surrounding Iran and the threat of oil supply disruptions, investors are focusing not on safe-haven assets but on the inflationary consequences of the crisis. This has changed the market’s usual reaction: geopolitical tensions are strengthening the dollar through expectations of higher interest rates rather than directly supporting gold.

The main drivers of gold price movements are rising oil prices, growing inflation expectations, a stronger dollar, and the increasing likelihood of tighter Federal Reserve policy. At the same time, long-term demand from central banks remains a key factor underpinning the gold market.

Technical outlook

On the XAUUSD H4 chart, prices formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As the pattern signal plays out, quotes continue to form a downward wave. Since XAUUSD prices remain within a descending channel, the 3,970 USD support level could serve as the downside target.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another scenario, involving a price correction towards 4,075 USD before the decline resumes.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,075 and 4,155
• Key support levels: 3,970 and 3,900

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 3,970 support level would confirm continued downward momentum and create conditions for a further decline in XAUUSD.

• Take Profit: 3,900
• Stop Loss: 3,990

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,075 resistance level would indicate easing selling pressure and a deeper correction.

• Take Profit: 4,155
• Stop Loss: 4,050

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish XAUUSD scenario remains growing expectations of a Fed rate hike, which would support the dollar and US Treasury yields. Easing geopolitical tensions would add to pressure on gold. As long as prices remain above 4,000, buyers will retain the upper hand.

Summary

Gold continues to lose ground amid geopolitical risks and a stronger USD. Today’s XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards the 3,970 USD support level.

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