Gold (XAUUSD) forced to retreat as the outlook turns bearish

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have fallen to 4,020 USD. The market is once again focused on oil and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. For more details, see our analysis for 29 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are declining, with the external backdrop and forecasts working against the precious metal
• The chances of a recovery in gold appear limited
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 July 2026: 4,000

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading near 4,020 USD per ounce on Wednesday, holding near the previous session’s lows. The metal remains under pressure as oil prices recover following a renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which has once again heightened geopolitical risks and refocused market attention on inflation and the outlook for interest rates.

The US military reported that it had intercepted an unexpected Iranian attack targeting American units stationed in the region. This heightened tensions and supported oil prices.

Investors are also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision. The regulator is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, although the market still estimates the likelihood of a hike at approximately 33%. This is an unusually high level of uncertainty immediately before the meeting, despite Donald Trump’s repeated calls for lower borrowing costs.

Traders estimate the probability of a rate hike in September at approximately 80%. This reinforces expectations that borrowing costs will remain high and continues to restrain demand for gold.

The gold (XAUUSD) outlook is bearish.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD maintains a downward trajectory near 4,023, with prices hovering below the middle Bollinger Band and close to the indicator’s lower boundary, confirming that sellers have the upper hand.

The nearest support level lies in the 4,016–4,000 area. A breakout below this zone would open the way towards 3,986 and then 3,956. Resistance levels are located at 4,046 and 4,077. As long as gold remains below 4,046, the scope for recovery appears limited.

MACD is in negative territory, indicating continued bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards after leaving oversold territory, so a short-term rebound from current levels is possible. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 4,000–4,046 range with a moderately bearish bias.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,046 and 4,077
• Key support levels: 4,000 and 3,986

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,000 support level would confirm increased selling pressure and create conditions for a further decline in XAUUSD.

• Take Profit: 3,986
• Stop Loss: 4,025

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,046 resistance level would indicate weakening bearish momentum and a corrective recovery.

• Take Profit: 4,077
• Stop Loss: 4,025

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD bearish scenario remains a possible softening of the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric or a new surge in geopolitical tensions, which could restore demand for safe-haven assets. As long as gold remains below 4,046, sellers retain the advantage.

Summary

Gold prices are declining due to rising oil prices and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 29 July 2026, does not rule out a slide towards 4,000.

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