Gold (XAUUSD) set to end July higher for the first time in five months

Gold (XAUUSD) prices fall to 4,074 USD as the market has fully priced in the previous decline in the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis for 31 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes rose and then corrected in response to fluctuations in the US dollar
• Gold is set to end July with its first monthly gain in five months
• XAUUSD forecast for 31 July 2026: 4,066 or 4,101

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading at 4,074 USD per ounce on Friday after two sessions of gains, supported by a sharp decline in the US dollar amid speculation that Japan had again intervened in the currency market to strengthen the yen.

Gold also gained momentum this week after the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady despite rising inflation risks due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. However, expectations of tighter policy continue to limit the upside, with the market pricing in an approximately 63% probability of a September rate hike.

Additional demand for safe-haven assets was supported by new US strikes on facilities in Iran in response to Tehran’s attacks on US forces and infrastructure in the region. This reduced the chances of a swift diplomatic agreement.

Gold (XAUUSD) is up more than 2% this month and is poised to close July with its first gain in five months.

The gold (XAUUSD) outlook is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is attempting to recover. However, after rising above 4,100, prices have entered a correction phase and are trading near 4,075. Quotes remain above the middle Bollinger Band, so the short-term structure remains moderately positive.

The nearest support level lies in the 4,066–4,055 area, followed by the 4,038 and 4,011 levels. Resistance is located at 4,093–4,101, and a breakout would open the way towards 4,120 and the key 4,168 level. As long as gold remains above 4,066, another growth attempt is possible.

MACD is near the zero line, indicating weak upward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator turned down after approaching overbought territory, so a local correction may continue. The base case remains movement within the 4,066–4,101 range with a moderately positive bias.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: moderately bullish, consolidation
• Key resistance levels: 4,101 and 4,120
• Key support levels: 4,066 and 4,038

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,101 resistance level would confirm the completion of the local correction and create conditions for further XAUUSD growth.

• Take Profit: 4,120
• Stop Loss: 4,080

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,066 support level would indicate weakening buying pressure and a deeper correction.

• Take Profit: 4,038
• Stop Loss: 4,085

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD bullish scenario remains a stronger US dollar amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Gold could face additional pressure from easing geopolitical tensions and lower demand for safe-haven assets. As long as prices hold above 4,066, another attempt to rise towards 4,101–4,120 remains likely.

Summary

Gold prices are undergoing a correction after their rise. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 31 July 2026, suggests consolidation within the 4,066–4,101 range.

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