Gold market holds its breath as NFP is set to determine a new XAUUSD trend

Geopolitical developments and oil prices continue to influence gold, with XAUUSD prices currently hovering at 4,055 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 3 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US president prefers to focus on negotiations
• Falling oil prices have slightly eased concerns about rising US inflation
• XAUUSD forecast for 3 August 2026: 4,135 or 4,000

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 3 August 2026, shows that gold is forming another corrective wave and testing the 4,055 USD level.

US President Donald Trump said that he does not currently intend to launch new strikes against Iran and prefers to focus on negotiations. Against this backdrop, oil prices declined, and concerns about another acceleration in US inflation eased slightly. Gold, by contrast, received support. A weaker US dollar provided an additional boost, making the metal more attractive to buyers outside the US.

Following the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, the market is still trying to assess the likelihood of an interest rate hike in the autumn. Some policymakers continue to maintain a hawkish stance, but lower oil prices have slightly reduced concerns that inflation could begin to accelerate again. As a result, the overall backdrop for gold has improved noticeably.

The key event of the week will be the release of the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could significantly impact expectations for the Fed’s next steps.

The XAUUSD forecast for 3 August 2026 is based on the view that the current environment for gold is moderately positive. Lower oil prices and a weaker US dollar have supported the metal, but further market movement will primarily depend on US employment data.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As the pattern signal develops, prices could continue their downward wave. Since XAUUSD remains within a descending channel, the downside target could be the 4,000 USD support level.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests an alternative scenario involving a correction towards 4,135 USD before the decline.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: range
• Key resistance levels: 4,135 and 4,220
• Key support levels: 4,000 and 3,930

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,000 support level would confirm the end of the local correction and create conditions for a further decline in XAUUSD.

• Take Profit: 3,930
• Stop Loss: 4,020

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,135 resistance level would indicate strengthening buyer activity and a deeper correction.

• Take Profit: 4,220
• Stop Loss: 4,115

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD bearish scenario remains US dollar weakness amid expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in September. Easing geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices may provide additional support for gold.

Summary

Gold is awaiting US employment data and further action by the US president in the Middle East. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards the 4,000 USD level.

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