Gold (XAUUSD) lacks direction as the range holds

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have stalled near 4,050 USD amid considerable market uncertainty. Find out more in our analysis for 4 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) is holding steady amid an unclear external backdrop
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is around 65%
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 August 2026: 4,033 or 4,085

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) stabilised near 4,050 USD per ounce on Tuesday, trading within a narrow range. Investors are monitoring negotiations between the US and Iran, assessing the prospects of a full resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.

Donald Trump said the proposal for talks was Tehran’s last chance to reach an agreement and expressed confidence that the strait would reopen soon.

Iran denies holding direct talks with the US but reports progress in discussions with Oman aimed at increasing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July, the market estimates the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September at around 65%. New York Fed President John Williams said that monetary policy was appropriately positioned and that inflation was expected to slow in the second half of the year.

The gold (XAUUSD) outlook is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD continues to move sideways, trading near 4,054. Prices are hovering near the middle Bollinger Band, while the indicator’s boundaries are gradually narrowing, indicating lower volatility and the absence of sustained directional momentum.

The nearest resistance level lies in the 4,069–4,085 area, followed by the 4,110 mark. Support levels are located at 4,033 and 4,008, with the key level at 3,983. As long as gold remains above 4,033, recovery attempts remain possible, while consolidation below this level would increase the risk of a decline towards 4,008–3,983.

MACD is slightly below the zero line and does not yet confirm steady growth. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards and supports a short-term rebound but has not yet entered overbought territory. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 4,033–4,085 range with a neutral bias.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: range
• Key resistance levels: 4,085 and 4,110
• Key support levels: 4,033 and 4,008

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,033 support level would confirm a downward breakout from the sideways range and create conditions for a continued decline in XAUUSD.

• Take Profit: 4,008
• Stop Loss: 4,055

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,085 resistance level would indicate increased buying pressure and an upward move.

• Take Profit: 4,110
• Stop Loss: 4,065

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD bearish scenario remains a weaker US dollar and a shift in Federal Reserve rate expectations towards a more accommodative policy. A renewed escalation between the US and Iran could provide additional support for gold. As long as prices remain within the 4,033–4,085 range, directional momentum remains unconfirmed.

Summary

Gold prices have entered a narrow range amid external uncertainty. Today’s XAUUSD forecast for 4 August 2026 suggests prices could remain within the 4,033–4,085 range.

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