XAUUSD maintains bullish momentum after the Federal Reserve meeting

XAUUSD is rising for a second consecutive trading session after rebounding from strong support. The current price is 4,367 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 18 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is estimated at 53.1%, according to CME FedWatch
• US initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 September 2026: 4,575

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD is rising for a second consecutive trading session. Buyers held the 4,250 USD support level and then began testing the 4,395 USD resistance level more actively. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points removed a source of uncertainty and helped improve investor sentiment. The Federal Reserve noted that inflation remains elevated, but its policy should help bring it back towards the 2% target.

According to traders' average forecast, the key rate could be raised by another 25 basis points before the end of 2026. Market participants currently assess the probability of another rate increase at the October meeting at 53.1%, according to CME FedWatch.

US labour market data released on Thursday provided additional support to XAUUSD. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 10,000 to 196,000. Analysts had instead expected the figure to rise to 208,000. Despite the resilience of the labour market, the decline in claims strengthened expectations regarding the future path of Federal Reserve monetary policy, supporting demand for gold. Today's XAUUSD forecast remains bullish.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD has consolidated above the EMA-65 line and moved out of the descending channel, indicating stronger buying pressure. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests a continuation of the upward move towards the 4,575 USD target.

Technical indicators remain predominantly bullish. The Stochastic Oscillator reversed from the support area and formed a bullish crossover, indicating a high probability of further gains. An additional signal in favour of the bullish scenario would be consolidation above 4,395 USD. This would confirm stronger bullish momentum and open the way for buyers towards the next target.

The alternative scenario would become relevant if support is broken and the price consolidates below 4,280 USD. In this case, the bullish structure could be disrupted and selling pressure could intensify, creating conditions for a downward correction.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,395 and 4,575
• Key support levels: 4,250 and 4,205

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the local 4,395 resistance level would indicate stronger bullish momentum towards the 4,575 target and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Current price: 4,367
• Entry level: 4,395
• Take Profit: 4,575
• Stop Loss: 4,355
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:4

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 19 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish scenario remains buyers' inability to consolidate above the 4,395 USD resistance level. An additional negative signal would be a downward reversal in the Stochastic Oscillator and a break below the 4,280 USD support level, which could intensify the corrective decline.

Summary

The current two-day recovery in XAUUSD towards the 4,395 USD resistance level is supported by improved investor sentiment after uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's move was removed.

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