Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: falling yields give room for a rebound

Gold is ending the week near 4,360 USD per ounce after recovering by almost 2% earlier. Lower oil prices and bond yields have reduced pressure on the metal, although the effects of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years continue to restrain buyers.

This week, the key question will be whether XAUUSD can sustain its recovery after defending the 4,235 area.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: further movements in US Treasury yields will be at the centre of market attention. The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated to around 4.93% after briefly rising above 5%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. If yields continue to correct lower, XAUUSD will have room to recover. A return in bond-market yields to recent highs, by contrast, would once again increase the appeal of interest-bearing assets and make it harder for gold to rise.
• Current trend: on the daily chart, XAUUSD is attempting to stabilise after declining from the August high in the 4,680–4,700 area. The price rebounded from support at 4,235 but remains below the middle Bollinger Band and resistance at 4,367. MACD has approached negative territory, confirming weakening medium-term momentum. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards after leaving oversold territory and is now showing a recovery in short-term demand. For now, these signals point more to an attempted rebound than to the formation of a new upward trend.
• Fundamentals and outlook: the baseline scenario assumes an attempted recovery while support at 4,235 holds. The first important obstacle for buyers will be the 4,367 area: only a break above it would indicate strengthening upward momentum. In this case, the next target would be around 4,425, followed by 4,554. A return below 4,235 would invalidate the recovery scenario and once again increase the risk of a decline towards 4,168.

What moves gold next week

The fundamental backdrop for gold has become less negative following the decline in oil prices. Oil is falling as Saudi Arabia restores supplies through the East-West pipeline, helping to ease concerns about a new inflationary impulse.

At the same time, US Treasury yields have started to decline. The yield on 10-year notes has returned to around 4.93% after moving above 5% earlier in the week. This factor is directly important for gold: lower yields reduce the advantage of interest-bearing assets over the metal, which does not generate coupon income.

Monetary policy nevertheless remains a risk factor. The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in three years and signalled that additional tightening may be needed to contain inflation. The market currently estimates the probability of another move as early as October at around 53%.

Gold is therefore receiving support from lower oil prices and a correction in yields, but expectations of further Federal Reserve rate increases are limiting the upside potential. A sustained recovery in XAUUSD would require a further easing of pressure from the bond market.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, gold remains in a corrective structure after failing to consolidate above 4,680 in August. The subsequent decline brought the price to the important horizontal support at 4,234, from which the market is currently attempting to rebound.

The nearest resistance is at 4,367. A break above it would return the price to the upper half of the local range and open the way towards 4,425 and 4,554. The key medium-term resistance remains at 4,698. On the downside, 4,234 is the main support, below which the next targets are 4,168 and 4,040.

The price remains in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands. MACD has moved below zero and continues to confirm weakening of the previous upward move. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards after leaving oversold territory: the fast line has risen to around 50 points and is above the signal line.

The combination of indicators points to the possibility of a further technical recovery, but to confirm a change in short-term momentum, buyers need to push XAUUSD back above 4,367.

Gold trading scenario for next week

The rebound from 4,235 and the Stochastic Oscillator’s upward reversal are creating conditions for a recovery, but the price remains below important resistance. Therefore, buying becomes relevant only after a confirmed break above 4,367.

Buy scenario

Consolidation above 4,367 would confirm stronger demand after the support held and create conditions for a continued recovery.

• Entry level: buy stop 4,370
• Take profit: 4,554
• Stop loss: 4,285
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:2.2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 25 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

If XAUUSD remains below 4,367, the trade idea will not be activated.

Summary

Gold begins the new week after rebounding from the key support level at 4,235, while falling US Treasury yields are improving conditions for a recovery. At the same time, the technical structure does not yet confirm a full return of buyers.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for 21–25 September suggests a recovery if 4,367 is broken, with potential for a move towards 4,554.

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