BTC trapped: USD, oil, and the Fed are putting pressure on cryptocurrencies

After another attempt to regain ground, the BTCUSD price is forming a correction and is hovering around 63,000 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 13 July 2026.

BTCUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Sellers still have the upper hand, with the market awaiting new macroeconomic drivers
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record net capital outflows
• BTCUSD forecast for 13 July 2026: 64,470

Fundamental analysis

Today’s BTCUSD analysis takes into account that Bitcoin is trading around 63,000 USD, remaining under pressure after a failed attempt to consolidate above the key resistance level at 64,400 USD. Sellers retain the initiative, while the market is awaiting new macroeconomic drivers.

After the new escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran and reports about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, investors once again started to retreat to safe-haven assets. Rising oil prices fuelled inflation concerns, and the market began to price in a higher probability of further Fed policy tightening, which is negatively affecting cryptocurrencies.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record net capital outflows, while rising volumes of BTC transfers to exchanges and the liquidation of long positions are increasing pressure on the price. The market is focused on US inflation data, which will be published in the coming days. If the CPI comes in above expectations again, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a hawkish policy stance will increase, which could add to pressure on Bitcoin.

Despite attempts to hold above 63,000 USD, the combination of a strong dollar, rising US Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and weak institutional demand is limiting the recovery potential. Before the US inflation data release, Bitcoin will most likely remain in a range with elevated volatility, while breaking through the 64,000–64,400 USD zone remains the key condition for the uptrend to resume.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue the corrective wave as the signal plays out, with the downside target at the 61,730 support level. A rebound from this mark would open the way for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, the BTCUSD forecast for 13 July 2026 also suggests another scenario. Quotes may continue to rise and test the 64,470 resistance level. After breaking it, they may continue the uptrend.

BTCUSD overview

• Asset: BTCUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 63,900 and 64,470
• Key support levels: 62,600 and 61,730

Bitcoin trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 63,900 USD resistance level would confirm continued upward movement and open the way to the next target around 64,470 USD. Recovery in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, lower expectations of a Fed rate hike, and improved overall risk appetite continue to support growth.

• Take Profit: 64,470
• Stop Loss: 63,600

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 62,600 USD support level would signal a correction after the recent rise. In this case, the nearest target could be the 61,730 USD area, where a stronger demand zone is located.

• Take Profit: 61,730
• Stop Loss: 63,000

Risk factors

The key risks to the BTCUSD upside scenario remain renewed outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a stronger US dollar. Despite consolidation above 62,000 USD, the long-term downtrend following the all-time high has not yet been completely broken. As a result, elevated volatility at the start of the week remains.

Summary

Today’s Bitcoin price forecast is not favourable for the cryptocurrency, with the price potentially continuing its downward trajectory ahead of US data. BTCUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards 61,730.

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