AUDUSD surges higher – do not miss the moment

The USD continues to lose ground against the AUD, with the AUDUSD rate testing the 0.7125 level. Discover more in our analysis for 27 February 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Chicago PMI (US): previously at 54.0, projected at 52.0
• US core PPI: previously at 0.7%, projected at 0.3%
• AUDUSD forecast for 27 February 2026: 0.7190

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD outlook favours the Australian dollar, which has strong potential to continue recovering against the USD after completing a correction. The pair is currently trading around 0.7120.

The Chicago PMI is an economic indicator measuring business activity in the Chicago manufacturing sector and surrounding areas. It is based on a monthly survey of over 200 companies across manufacturing, wholesale, retail, and transportation sectors. The index reflects changes in new orders, inventories, employment, and supplier deliveries. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI is often seen as a leading indicator of national economic trends.

The AUDUSD forecast takes into account that the Chicago PMI may decline to 52.0 from the previous 54.0. Although the index would remain above the 50.0 expansion threshold, the slowdown, combined with other macroeconomic data, could put pressure on the USD and support further gains in the AUDUSD pair.

The US core PPI is also expected to decline to 0.3% on 27 February 2026, down from 0.7%. An actual decrease in this indicator could exert additional negative pressure on the USD.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD rate formed an Engulfing reversal pattern after testing the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair continues to develop an upward wave as the signal plays out. The next upside target could be the 0.7190 resistance level.

The AUDUSD forecast for 27 February 2026 also considers an alternative scenario in which quotes may form a corrective pullback towards the nearest support level at 0.7085 before resuming growth.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7145 and 0.7190
• Key support levels: 0.7085 and 0.7000

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 0.7145 would open the way for further upward movement. Additional support for the bullish scenario may come from continued USD weakness. The risk-to-reward ratio is approximately 1:2.

• Buy Stop: 0.7150
• Take Profit: 0.7190
• Stop Loss: 0.7130

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 0.7085 would indicate a return of sellers and invalidate the bullish bias. In this case, a decline towards 0.6925 becomes possible.

• Sell Stop: 0.7080
• Take Profit: 0.6925
• Stop Loss: 0.7110

Risk factors

Risks for the Australian dollar include further strengthening of the US dollar amid hawkish Fed rhetoric, weak domestic economic data from Australia, or shifting expectations regarding Reserve Bank of Australia policy tightening.

Summary

Ahead of key US fundamental data, the AUD continues to strengthen. Technical analysis suggests the AUDUSD pair may rise towards the 0.7190 level after a correction.

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