AUDUSD on the rise: weak US data gives the Australian dollar a chance

The USD is once again losing ground against the Australian dollar, with the AUDUSD pair testing the 0.7030 level. Discover more in our analysis for 6 March 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 130 thousand, projected at 58 thousand
• US retail sales: previously at 0.0%, projected at -0.3%
• AUDUSD forecast for 6 March 2026: 0.7135

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD outlook favours the Australian dollar, as it has a strong chance to continue recovering against the USD after the correction is completed. At this stage, the pair is trading around 0.7030.

US Nonfarm Payrolls show how many jobs were created across the US economy over the past month. The previous figure was 130 thousand, and the forecast for 6 March 2026 suggests employment growth may slow to 58 thousand. In this case, it is a negative factor for the US dollar. The indicator is fairly volatile and can change significantly, thereby having an elevated impact on the AUDUSD rate.

US retail sales reflect the change in the total value of goods sold at the retail level over the month. This indicator shows how consumer demand has changed compared to the previous month. Retail sales include purchases in stores, food service, online commerce, and other channels, excluding spending on services.

The previous reading was 0.0%, and the forecast for 6 March 2026 suggests it may decline to -0.3%. Overall, the drop is not critical, but it signals softer consumer activity, which may point to slowing economic growth and a weaker USD.

Technical outlook

Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, the AUDUSD pair formed a Harami reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, quotes continue to develop an upward wave following the signal, with a potential upside target at the 0.7135 resistance level.

The AUDUSD forecast for 6 March 2026 also considers an alternative scenario, in which the pair could form a corrective pullback to the nearest support level at 0.6985 before rising further.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7080 and 0.7135
• Key support levels: 0.6985 and 0.6925

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 0.7080 resistance level would open the door to an uptrend. Additional support for the bullish scenario may come from USD weakness. The risk-to-reward ratio is approximately 1:2.

• Buy Stop: 0.7080
• Take Profit: 0.7135
• Stop Loss: 0.7050

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 0.6985 would indicate a return of sellers and invalidate the bullish bias. In this case, a decline towards 0.6925 is likely.

• Sell Stop: 0.6980
• Take Profit: 0.6925
• Stop Loss: 0.7000

Risk factors

Risks for the Australian dollar include further USD strengthening on the back of hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, strong US macroeconomic data, and rising expectations of policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Summary

Ahead of US labour market data, the Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the USD. AUDUSD technical analysis suggests a move towards the resistance area at 0.7135.

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