Shock therapy worked: a one-vote margin turned into an extremely strong signal for AUDUSD

The AUD continues to strengthen after the interest rate was raised to 4.1%, with the AUDUSD pair testing the 0.7090 mark. Discover more in our analysis for 20 March 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in February
• The RBA raised the interest rate to 4.1%
• Employment increased from 26.1 thousand to 48.9 thousand in February
• AUDUSD forecast for 20 March 2026: 0.7140

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast favours the Australian dollar, which has every chance of continuing to recover against the US dollar. At this stage, the pair is trading around the 0.7090 mark.

The RBA’s hawkish tail is wagging the dog. The market is still digesting the RBA’s shock therapy after it raised the rate to 4.1% last week from the previous 3.85%. A real drama unfolded behind the scenes at the regulator: the board made the decision by a margin of just one vote (5:4), indicating a deep split and uncertainty within the bank itself. This internal struggle is creating unique volatility – on the one hand, the high rate is attracting investors through the carry trade, while on the other hand, the threat of an economic slowdown due to expensive borrowing is weighing on the AUD.

Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in February, up from 4.1% in January, but employment increased from 26.1 thousand to 48.9 thousand, offsetting the rise in unemployment and providing additional support for the AUD.

The participation rate also increased in February: the January reading stood at 66.7%, while in February it rose to 66.9%. Taken together, all these factors are supporting the AUD and driving the AUDUSD rate higher.

Technical outlook

After testing the lower Bollinger Band, the AUDUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, quotes remain within an ascending channel and continue their upward momentum following the signal, with an upside target at the 0.7140 resistance level.

The AUDUSD forecast for 20 March 2026 also considers an alternative market scenario in which quotes may form a corrective wave towards the nearest support level at 0.7045 before resuming growth.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7140 and 0.7170
• Key support levels: 0.7045 and 0.6910

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 0.7140 resistance level would open the way for continued upward movement. A further strengthening of the AUD may provide additional support for the bullish scenario. The risk-to-reward ratio is approximately 1:2.

• Buy Stop: 0.7140
• Take Profit: 0.7180
• Stop Loss: 0.7120

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below 0.7045 would indicate the return of sellers and the cancellation of the bullish bias. In this case, quotes will likely decline towards 0.6910.

• Sell Stop: 0.7040
• Take Profit: 0.6910
• Stop Loss: 0.7070

Risk factors

The main risk factors for the Australian dollar remain further strengthening of the US dollar amid more hawkish Fed rhetoric, strong US macroeconomic data, and easing geopolitical tensions.

Summary

After the RBA raised the interest rate, the Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the USD. AUDUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 0.7140 mark.

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