The Australian dollar back in play: how US inflation and the Consumer Sentiment Index may strengthen AUDUSD

After losing ground, the Australian dollar is making another attempt to recover, with AUDUSD quotes testing the 0.6890 level. Discover more in our analysis for 27 March 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US inflation expectations from the University of Michigan: previously at 3.4%, projected at 3.4%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: previously at 56.6, projected at 55.5
• AUDUSD forecast for 27 March 2026: 0.6960

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast favours the Australian dollar, which has every chance of recovering against the USD, with the pair currently trading around 0.6890.

According to the forecast for 27 March 2026, US inflation expectations from the University of Michigan may remain unchanged at 3.4%. It is worth remembering that the indicator had been falling for several months from 4.2 to 3.4. Actual data at the previous level can be considered neutral, indicating some stabilisation in the US economy. However, a worse-than-expected actual reading may affect the AUDUSD rate, strengthening the Australian dollar.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is not just a statistical indicator, but perhaps the most emotional and at the same time the most accurate thermometer of the US economy.

Unlike dry figures on sales or GDP, this index measures the pulse of the nation. It captures what people feel: whether they believe in tomorrow, whether they fear losing their jobs, and whether they are ready to part with their money right now.

The most valuable element of this report is not the headline figure, but the question: how much do you think prices will rise over the next year? These are called inflation expectations. If people believe inflation will be high, they start spending money now, driving prices even higher, or demanding higher wages. For the Federal Reserve, this indicator is better than any chart. If expectations get out of control, the Fed is prepared to raise rates even at the cost of a recession to freeze inflation.

According to the forecast for 27 March 2026, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index may fall to 55.5 points from the previous 56.6. A worse-than-expected actual figure may put additional pressure on the USD and drive the AUDUSD rate higher.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, after testing the lower Bollinger Band, the AUDUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern. At this stage, quotes remain within an ascending channel and continue to form an upward wave following this signal, with the upside target at the 0.6960 resistance level.

The AUDUSD forecast for 27 March 2026 also takes into account an alternative market scenario, where quotes may form a downward wave towards the nearest support level at 0.6855 before rising.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 0.6960 and 0.7180
• Key support levels: 0.6855 and 0.6750

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 0.6990 resistance level will open the way for an upward wave. A stronger AUD may provide additional support for the upside scenario. The risk-to-reward ratio is approximately 1:4.

• Buy Stop: 0.6990
• Take Profit: 0.7180
• Stop Loss: 0.6950

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 0.6855 would indicate the return of sellers and the cancellation of the bullish bias. In this case, the price will likely decline towards 0.6750.

• Sell Stop: 0.6855
• Take Profit: 0.7000
• Stop Loss: 0.6750

Risk factors

The main risk factors for the Australian dollar remain further strengthening of the US dollar amid more hawkish Fed rhetoric, strong US macroeconomic data, and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Summary

The Australian dollar is making another attempt to strengthen amid weak US macroeconomic forecasts. AUDUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 0.6960.

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