AUDUSD at the epicentre of the storm: RBA rates against geopolitics

AUDUSD showed its strongest growth since January 2026. The RBA is ready to raise the interest rate, which is supporting the AUD. Quotes are testing the 0.7065 mark and are ready to continue rising. More details are in our analysis for 10 April 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• AUDUSD is showing a weekly gain of almost 3% - the best result since January.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish monetary policy remains in place
• In May, June, and August, the RBA may raise the rate to 4.85%
• AUDUSD forecast for 10 April 2026: 0.7155

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast takes into account that the AUD is going through a dramatic end to a week full of geopolitical swings. The AUDUSD pair is forming a corrective wave after weekly growth and is trading around 0.7060, while showing a weekly gain of almost 3% - the best result since January.

The whole market has frozen today in anticipation of the weekend, when key talks between the US and Iran on a permanent ceasefire will begin in Islamabad. Their outcome will determine whether the AUD continues its upward trend or whether this is where it ends.

The situation is paradoxical:

• On the one hand, the two-week truce concluded on Tuesday is still formally in force. This allowed investors to breathe out and start selling the dollar, which was the main safe haven during the war. This week, the DXY dollar index fell by 1.3%.
• On the other hand, the fragile agreement is falling apart. Israel carried out massive strikes on Lebanon, Iran accused the US of violating the terms, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not been restored - in the first day of the truce, only one oil-products tanker and five dry cargo vessels passed through it, compared with the usual 140 ships a day

Despite the external risks, the Australian dollar has a strong internal pillar of support - the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish monetary policy.

Key facts:

• In March, the RBA raised the rate to 4.10% - this was the second increase in 2026
• The market estimates the probability of another increase in May at 55-71%
• Westpac expects three rate hikes in 2026, in May, June, and August, which may take the rate to 4.85% - the highest level since November 2008

This creates a unique situation: the RBA rate is already above the Fed rate at 3.75%, and the gap may widen further. The higher yield on Australian assets is attracting carry traders, which is supporting the AUD.

The Australian dollar is ending its best week since January on a positive note, but everything is hanging by a thread. The AUD has a powerful domestic trump card - a hawkish RBA with rising rates. However, the main driver now is not the economy, but the negotiation process in Islamabad. Success, and AUDUSD flies towards the 0.7200 mark. Failure, and AUDUSD may fall towards the 0.6900 level. The weekend promises to be tense, but by the opening of the trading session on Monday, everything may fall into place.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, near the upper Bollinger Band, AUDUSD formed a Doji reversal pattern. At this stage, quotes remain within an upward channel and continue to form a corrective wave as part of this signal. Support at 0.7025 may act as the pullback target.

The AUDUSD forecast for 10 April 2026 also takes into account another market scenario, where quotes may continue the upward wave towards the nearest resistance at 0.7155 without testing support.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: Bullish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7085 and 0.7155
• Key support levels: 0.7025 and 0.6945

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of resistance at 0.7085 and consolidation above it will open the way for the continuation of the upward wave. An additional factor in favour of the growth scenario may come from statements by RBA representatives and a weaker USD.

• Buy Stop: 0.7085
• Take Profit: 0.7155
• Stop Loss: 0.7055

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 0.7025 level will indicate the return of sellers and a stronger USD. In this case, quotes will likely decline towards 0.6750.

• Sell Stop: 0.7020
• Take Profit: 0.6945
• Stop Loss: 0.7050

Risk factors

The main risk factors for the Australian dollar remain further strengthening of the US dollar amid more hawkish Fed rhetoric and lower geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

Summary

The Australian dollar continues to strengthen, and the probability of an interest rate increase by the RBA remains high. Geopolitical risks are paradoxically supporting the AUD. AUDUSD technical analysis points to a correction in quotes towards support at 0.7025 before growth.

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