Modest employment data fails to deter bulls: AUDUSD continues to rise

After approaching the March highs, the AUDUSD pair is forming a correction following the release of Australian employment data. At the moment, the price is testing the 0.7165 level. Discover more in our analysis for 17 April 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• New jobs in March reached 17.9 thousand
• The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%
• Full-time employment in Australia rose by 52.5 thousand
• AUDUSD forecast for 17 April 2026: 0.7225

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast takes into account that the Australian dollar continues to perform strongly in the currency market, hovering near four-year highs. At the moment, the AUDUSD pair is trading in the 0.7150-0.7165 range after failing to break above the psychological 0.7200 level the previous day.

Yesterday’s labour market data undoubtedly disappointed the bulls, but it failed to break them.

Disappointing figures: new jobs in March came in at only 17.9 thousand, below the forecast of 19.1 thousand and marking a significant slowdown compared to February’s jump of 49.7 thousand.

The other side of the coin: the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. Moreover, a structural shift lies behind the weak headline figure: full-time employment rose by 52.5 thousand, while part-time employment declined, signalling that job quality is improving, while the labour market remains tight.

RBA reaction: the mixed employment report strengthened the market’s view that the Reserve Bank of Australia is forced to maintain a hawkish course. The market is fully pricing in a rate hike in May, while the likelihood of a move as early as next week, at the April meeting, is estimated at 65%.

The AUDUSD pair is in excellent shape thanks to a perfect combination of three factors:

• Global risk aversion
• The RBA’s hawkish stance
• The resilience of the Chinese economy, which supports the AUD

Even the somewhat weak domestic employment data failed to dampen this optimism. The AUDUSD forecast is positive for the AUD. In the near term, the AUDUSD rate may continue its uptrend and reach the highs of 2022.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern while pulling back near the middle Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes remain within an ascending channel and continue to form an upward wave following the signal, with the potential upside target at the 0.7225 resistance level.

The AUDUSD forecast for 17 April 2026 also takes into account another market scenario, where quotes may form a corrective wave towards the nearest support level at 0.7135 before growth.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7190 and 0.7225
• Key support levels: 0.7135 and 0.6945

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 0.7190 resistance level would open the way for a continued upward move. Statements from RBA representatives and a weaker USD could further support the upside scenario.

• Buy Stop: 0.7190
• Take Profit: 0.7225
• Stop Loss: 0.7175

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 0.7135 level would indicate a return of sellers and a stronger USD. In this case, quotes will likely decline towards 0.6945.

• Sell Stop: 0.7135
• Take Profit: 0.6945
• Stop Loss: 0.7150

Risk factors

Risk factors for the Australian dollar remain further strengthening of the US dollar amid more hawkish Fed rhetoric and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Summary

The AUDUSD rate moved very close to the 0.7200 level, which it failed to break amid Australian employment data. AUDUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 0.7225 after a correction.

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