AUDUSD is losing ground: geopolitics and a strong dollar are doing their job

The AUDUSD pair continues to decline amid geopolitical risks, with the price currently testing the 0.7120 level. Find out more in our analysis for 24 April 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Investors are traditionally moving away from risk on Friday ahead of the weekend, which is putting additional pressure on the AUD
• The S&P Global Composite PMI jumped to 53.5, indicating strong expansion in the US economy
• Markets are pricing in an 80% likelihood of an RBA interest rate hike in May
• AUDUSD forecast for 24 April 2026: 0.7080 and 0.7225

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast shows that the Australian dollar is ending the week on a subdued note, retreating under pressure from global risk aversion. On Friday morning, quotes are consolidating around 0.7120, marking the second consecutive day of decline.

The main driver of today’s volatility is the market’s disappointment in the lack of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, which is outweighing even relatively strong local data on the Australian economy.

Drivers of volatility in the AUDUSD rate:

• Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is weighing on risk appetite: Iran activated air defence systems in Tehran, while Israeli threats towards Lebanon continue amid a lack of progress in talks between Tehran and Washington. Investors are traditionally moving away from risk on Friday ahead of the weekend, adding to pressure on the AUD
• Australia’s PMI went unnoticed: preliminary S&P Global business activity indices for April showed the manufacturing sector returning to expansion territory, and the services sector showed recovery. However, these positive signals were fully offset by the uncertain global backdrop and weak external demand
• Strong US data dampened hopes for Fed easing: initial jobless claims rose slightly to 214 thousand, confirming the resilience of the labour market. The S&P Global Composite PMI jumped to 53.5, indicating strong expansion in the US economy. This pushed yields higher and strengthened the dollar, putting additional pressure on the pair

The market is trapped between a strong domestic hawkish sentiment and global risk aversion. On the one hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps an extremely hawkish tone: markets are pricing in an 80% likelihood of an interest rate hike in May, while full tightening by the end of the year is already priced in. On the other hand, Australia remains an importer of petroleum products, and each new round of escalation in the Middle East hits the country’s trade balance, preventing the AUD from surging higher.

The key event of next week will be the release of quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in Australia on Tuesday, 29 April. These figures will become the decisive argument for the RBA in making its interest rate decision. For now, geopolitics remains the key factor, with the pair’s upside potential constrained by fear ahead of the weekend, and a breakout below the 0.7115 support level remaining the primary scenario for today.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern while pulling back near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes remain within an ascending channel and continue to form a corrective wave. As this signal plays out, the price may complete the correction and form an upward wave, with the upside target at the 0.7225 resistance level.

The AUDUSD forecast for 24 April 2026 also takes into account another market scenario, in which quotes may continue the corrective wave towards the nearest support level at 0.7080 before growth.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7190 and 0.7225
• Key support levels: 0.7080 and 0.6945

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 0.7190 resistance level would open the way for the continuation of the upward wave. Statements by RBA officials regarding interest rate hikes and a weaker USD further confirm the upside scenario.

• Buy Stop: 0.7190
• Take Profit: 0.7225
• Stop Loss: 0.7175

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 0.7080 level would indicate the return of sellers and a stronger USD. In this case, quotes will likely decline towards 0.6945.

• Sell Stop: 0.7080
• Take Profit: 0.6945
• Stop Loss: 0.7110

Risk factors

Risk factors for the Australian dollar remain further strengthening of the US dollar amid more hawkish Fed rhetoric, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and statements from RBA officials.

Summary

Ahead of the weekend, the AUD continues to lose ground against the USD. At the same time, AUDUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 0.7225 resistance level after the correction.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.