AUDUSD gears up for a surge as the market awaits Nonfarm Payrolls

The AUDUSD rate is awaiting the release of US employment data, with the price currently testing the 0.7225 level. Find out more in our analysis for 8 May 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 178 thousand, projected at 65 thousand
• US unemployment rate: previously at 4.3%, projected at 4.3%
• AUDUSD forecast for 8 May 2026: 0.7320 and 0.7190

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast shows that the Australian dollar is completing its correction after reaching its highest level this year. On Friday morning, quotes are consolidating around 0.7225.

The main driver of today’s volatility is another wave of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the divergence in monetary policy between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve.

While geopolitical factors are attempting to push the pair lower, the only force preventing the AUD from collapsing is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s determined stance. On Tuesday, 5 May 2026, the RBA delivered its third consecutive rate hike in 2026, raising the rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%. The vote was virtually unanimous – 8 to 1.

Today’s main event is the publication of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report and the US unemployment rate. Nonfarm Payrolls are projected to fall to 65 thousand, down from the previous reading of 178 thousand. The unemployment forecast is softer, with the rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

The NFP report may take the pair out of its consolidation phase: weak US data will push the pair to storm the 0.7300 mark, while a reading above the previous figure and the forecast could send it down to the 0.7190 support level and below.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern on a pullback near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes remain within an ascending channel and could continue their upward wave as the signal plays out. In this case, the 0.7320 resistance level will act as the upside target.

The AUDUSD forecast for 8 May 2026 also takes into account another market scenario, where quotes may form a corrective wave towards the nearest support level at 0.7190 before rising.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7260 and 0.7320
• Key support levels: 0.7190 and 0.6945

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 0.7260 resistance level would open the way for a continued upward wave. The RBA rate hike and USD weakness further support the upside scenario.

• Buy Stop: 0.7260
• Take Profit: 0.7320
• Stop Loss: 0.7230

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 0.7190 would indicate the return of sellers and USD strengthening. In this case, quotes may decline to 0.6945.

• Sell Stop: 0.7190
• Take Profit: 0.6945
• Stop Loss: 0.7220

Risk factors

The risk factors for the Australian dollar remain further strengthening of the US dollar amid more hawkish Fed rhetoric, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and positive US employment data.

Summary

After hitting a new high, the Australian dollar is forming a correction ahead of a new surge. The RBA rate hike is providing additional support. AUDUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 0.7320 resistance level.

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