Panic in the AUDUSD market: the dollar dominates, while the Aussie holds on to hopes

The Australian dollar continues to lose ground amid geopolitical conflicts and rising energy prices. At the moment, the price is testing the 0.7160 level. Find out more in our analysis for 15 May 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US currency continues to gain momentum
• The market is pricing in at least one more interest rate hike from the RBA
• The outcome of the talks between the US President and the President of China may provide additional support for the USD
• AUDUSD forecast for 15 May 2026: 0.7115 and 0.7260

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast shows that the Australian dollar continues its correction after testing this year’s highs. On Friday morning, quotes are testing the 0.7160 level.

The main reason for the pair’s weakness is not Australia’s domestic problems, but the external environment. The US currency continues to gain momentum.

US inflation data published this week came in above the forecast, completely shattering expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise rates by the end of the year.

High oil prices and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz are increasing demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset, which is also putting pressure on the AUDUSD rate.

The only thing preventing the pair from a fall is the stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has already raised rates three times this year, bringing them to 4.35%. The market is pricing in at least one more rate hike, and the Australian dollar is trying to stay afloat on these hopes.

The forecast for 15 May 2026 takes into account that the AUDUSD rate is caught between the RBA’s hawkish intentions and the global flight into the USD. For now, the sellers have the upper hand. The main triggers today are the outcome of the talks between the US President and the President of China, as well as any news from the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes remain within an ascending channel and could continue the corrective wave following the signal from the pattern. In this case, the 0.7115 support level would act as the downside target.

The AUDUSD forecast also takes into account another market scenario, where quotes may continue their upward trajectory and head towards the nearest resistance level at 0.7260 without testing support.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7260 and 0.7320
• Key support levels: 0.7115 and 0.6945

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 0.7260 resistance level would open the way for a continued upward movement. Additional support for the upside scenario may come from signals from the RBA about an interest rate hike and possible USD weakness.

• Buy Stop: 0.7260
• Take Profit: 0.7320
• Stop Loss: 0.7230

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 0.7115 level would indicate the return of sellers and USD strengthening. In this case, quotes could dip towards 0.6945.

• Sell Stop: 0.7115
• Take Profit: 0.6945
• Stop Loss: 0.7220

Risk factors

The risk factors for the Australian dollar remain further strengthening of the US dollar amid more hawkish Fed rhetoric, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and signals of RBA monetary policy easing.

Summary

Rising inflation in the US is prompting the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy to strengthen the USD. AUDUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards the 0.7115 level before growth.

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