AUDUSD on the verge of elevated volatility as the market awaits the US and Iran decision

The AUDUSD rate has once again found itself at the mercy of geopolitical developments and Australian statistics. The AUDUSD pair is testing the 0.7150 level. Find out more in our analysis for 29 May 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The pair is balancing between positive geopolitical developments and negative domestic statistics
• Falling oil prices have a positive effect on the AUD
• AUDUSD forecast for 29 May 2026: 0.7125 and 0.7210

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast shows that the pair is forming a correction, balancing between positive geopolitical developments and negative domestic statistics. On Friday morning, quotes are testing the 0.7150 mark.

Falling oil prices are adding to the positive outlook for the AUD, but investors remain sceptical. If Washington and Tehran fail to agree on an extension of the ceasefire, the USD could strengthen sharply.

The domestic backdrop for the Australian dollar is deteriorating. The market has radically revised expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia rate after a series of weak economic indicators. As a result, market participants have sharply reduced the likelihood of an RBA rate hike in June. Such chances were discussed just a week ago, but now they have practically disappeared. This is a fundamentally bearish signal for the AUD.

As a result, the Australian dollar has stalled, awaiting geopolitical developments and the RBA decision. On the one hand, hopes for a ceasefire between the US and Iran are weakening the dollar and supporting risk appetite, which is positive for the AUD. On the other hand, domestic Australian data, weak inflation and labour market deterioration, are making the market doubt further RBA policy tightening, depriving the AUD of its main advantage.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair formed a Harami reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes remain within an ascending channel and could continue the corrective wave following the pattern signal. In this case, the downside target could be the 0.7125 support level.

The AUDUSD forecast also takes into account another market scenario, in which the price could continue to rise and move towards the nearest resistance level at 0.7210 without testing support.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7210 and 0.7320
• Key support levels: 0.7125 and 0.6945

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 0.7210 resistance level would open the way for the continuation of the uptrend. A weakening USD due to geopolitical tensions would further support this upside scenario.

• Buy Stop: 0.7210
• Take Profit: 0.7320
• Stop Loss: 0.7180

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 0.7125 would indicate a stronger USD as the market reacts to weak data from Australia. In this case, quotes could decline towards 0.6945.

• Sell Stop: 0.7125
• Take Profit: 0.6945
• Stop Loss: 0.7155

Risk factors

Risk factors for the Australian dollar remain further strengthening of the US dollar amid more hawkish Fed rhetoric, mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and clear signals of RBA monetary easing.

Summary

After attempting to strengthen, the Australian dollar has once again become dependent on geopolitics and statistics. Technical analysis of AUDUSD suggests a correction towards 0.7125 before growth.

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