EURUSD in positive territory: the US dollar falls short of expectations

The EURUSD pair is rising towards 1.1637. Investors are increasingly betting on rapid monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Find more details in our analysis for 3 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the EURUSD pair is moving higher amid rising expectations of a dovish Fed policy
• Current trend: the market expects active rate cuts in 2026
• EURUSD forecast for 3 December 2025: 1.1652

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate rose to 1.1637 on Wednesday. Pressure on the US dollar continues to grow due to expectations of further Fed rate cuts and increasing risk appetite after Bitcoin’s recovery and stock market growth.

The market is pricing in roughly an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next week, with the total easing for 2026 expected to be around 90 basis points.

Another factor supporting the dovish outlook is the expectation that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett may be nominated as the next Fed chair. Hassett is considered an advocate of more aggressive rate cuts, aligning with President Donald Trump’s preferences.

Investors will be focusing on the ADP employment report for November, which will provide additional insight into the US labour market.

The EURUSD forecast is moderate.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair continues its upward movement, approaching the key resistance level at 1.1652, where reversal signals previously appeared. The price is hovering above the middle Bollinger Band, confirming continued bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved into overbought territory (above 80), indicating a possible slowdown in growth. However, its signal lines have not yet crossed, suggesting momentum remains intact.

The support level is located in the 1.1555 area, from where the previous upward acceleration began. If buyers fail to confidently break above 1.1652, a short-term correction towards the middle Bollinger Band is likely. A breakout above resistance will open the way to the next target near 1.1700.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is trending higher. The EURUSD forecast for today, 3 December 2025, suggests another attempt to break above the 1.1652 level.

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