EURUSD: the pair awaits today’s ECB rate decision

The EURUSD rate is rising moderately, having turned higher from support at 1.1700. Today the market is awaiting the ECB interest rate decision. Details — in our analysis for 18 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Market focus: today the ECB interest rate decision will be announced — rates are expected to remain unchanged
• Current trend: moderate upward movement
• EURUSD forecast for 18 December 2025: 1.1700 or 1.1800

Fundamental analysis

Annual core inflation in the euro area, excluding food, energy, and tobacco prices, stood at 2.4% in November 2025 for the third consecutive month, in line with the preliminary estimate. Since reaching a nearly four-year low of 2.3% in May, core inflation in the euro area has remained stable.

Today, following the ongoing ECB meeting, the interest rate decision will be published. Against the backdrop of easing inflation, the European regulator is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2% and may potentially revise its economic growth forecasts for 2026 higher.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD quotes are strengthening moderately after rebounding from the 1.1700 level. The Alligator indicator has also turned upward along with price action, suggesting that further appreciation of the European currency may continue.

Within the short-term EURUSD price forecast, if bulls manage to retain control, a move toward the 1.1800 level and higher is quite possible in the near term. If bears regain the initiative, a renewed decline toward support at 1.1700 may follow.

Summary

The EURUSD price is rising moderately after rebounding from support at 1.1700. Today, the market is focused on the ECB interest rate decision.

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