PCE in the Fed’s spotlight: EURUSD ready for a sharp move

EURUSD may complete its correction and move toward the resistance area at 1.1775. Details — in our analysis for 22 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index: previous value — 2.8%, forecast — 2.8%
• Current trend: moving upwards
• EURUSD forecast for 22 December 2025: 1.1775 or 1.1690

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the euro continues its corrective wave, with the EURUSD pair trading around the 1.1715 level.

The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a key economic indicator that measures changes in the cost of goods and services, excluding food and energy. It is used to assess underlying inflation.

The index is calculated based on consumer spending data and reflects price dynamics faced by US households. It is analyzed in the context of current economic activity and provides the Federal Reserve with data used in shaping monetary policy. Its value signals fundamental inflation trends that affect purchasing power and the overall economic condition of the country.

The fundamental analysis for December 22, 2024 takes into account that the index value may remain unchanged at 2.8%. In the current environment, if the actual reading comes in weaker than the forecast, this would be a negative factor for the US dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair may develop an upward wave as part of the pattern’s realization. Given that prices remain within an ascending channel, they may move toward the 1.1775 area. A breakout above this level would open the way for further continuation of the upward trend.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario, involving a corrective pullback toward the 1.1690 level before renewed growth.

Summary

Today’s EURUSD forecast favors the euro. Technical analysis of EURUSD suggests a potential rise toward the 1.1775 level.

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