EURUSD loses bullish momentum after rejection from resistance

The EURUSD rate is developing within a corrective decline amid expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The current quote is 1.1762. Details — in our analysis for 29 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Investors continue to expect two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026
• Most Federal Reserve officials still allow for only one additional rate cut
• EURUSD forecast for 29 December 2025: 1.1845

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD has been declining for the third consecutive trading session. Buyers continue to face strong resistance at 1.1805, a level from which the price has reversed lower twice. It was after repeated tests of this area that the pair entered a sustained decline.

Investors continue to price in two interest rate cuts in 2026, despite differing views among Federal Reserve officials. Most FOMC members still consider only one additional easing step to be appropriate.

Against this backdrop, traders’ attention is shifting toward the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for Tuesday. The document may provide additional guidance on the Fed’s next steps and determine the short-term direction of EURUSD.

EURUSD technical analysis

EURUSD quotes are developing a corrective decline within an ascending channel. Despite the price consolidating below the EMA-65, buyers retain control of the market, indicating that the medium-term bullish bias remains intact.

The EURUSD forecast for today предполагает a resumption of growth toward the 1.1845 level. The bullish technical outlook is supported by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal lines have turned upward after testing the oversold zone and are rebounding from the support line, indicating the completion of the corrective phase.

A sustained breakout and consolidation above the 1.1795 resistance level would confirm a breakout of the upper boundary of the descending corrective channel and serve as a signal for strengthening buyer positions.

Summary

Pressure on EURUSD persists due to repeated failures to break above the 1.1805 resistance and ongoing uncertainty regarding the Fed’s next steps. EURUSD technical analysis points to the preservation of the bullish scenario and a high probability of renewed growth toward the 1.1845 level.

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