EURUSD: the pair consolidates near 1.1800

The EURUSD pair is trading near the 1.1800 level, close to the annual high, amid diverging monetary policy outlooks between the ECB and the Fed. Details — in our analysis for 30 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Market focus: today the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released
• Current trend: an upward impulse is observed
• EURUSD forecast for 30 December 2025: 1.1919 or 1.1700

Fundamental analysis

The European currency is trading near its annual high against the US dollar, reflecting the current divergence in policy paths between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve.

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in December and signaled that they are likely to remain at current levels for an extended period. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that high uncertainty makes it difficult to provide precise forecasts regarding future rate changes.

Markets are also preparing for the possibility that US President Donald Trump will appoint a new Fed Chair in 2026 to replace Jerome Powell after the end of his term in May. This development could potentially contribute to further interest rate cuts in the United States.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is trading near resistance at 1.1800. The Alligator indicator is pointing upward, suggesting that further strengthening of the European currency remains possible. The key support level is located at 1.1700.

Within the short-term EURUSD price forecast, if bulls manage to retain the initiative, a test of the annual high at 1.1919 is quite possible in the near term. If bears take control, a decline toward support at 1.1700 may follow.

Summary

EURUSD is holding firmly near 1.1800 amid stable ECB guidance indicating no near-term rate cuts. Today, the market is awaiting the release of the minutes from the December FOMC meeting.

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