A failed upside attempt strengthens sellers’ positions in EURUSD

The EURUSD pair is weakening amid seller dominance and persistent uncertainty surrounding future Fed decisions, with the rate currently at 1.1653. Discover more in our analysis for 13 January 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Uncertainty around the future Fed policy has temporarily supported the EURUSD rate
• Markets continue to price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, starting in June
• Risks of accelerating inflation may limit the regulator’s ability to ease monetary policy
• EURUSD forecast for 13 January 2026: 1.1555

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining after rebounding from the local resistance level at 1.1695. The recovery attempt failed, with the currency pair remaining under selling pressure. On Monday, the US dollar weakened amid reports that the US Department of Justice is preparing to bring criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. This factor temporarily increased uncertainty around US monetary policy and provided support to the EURUSD pair.

Despite this, markets continue to price in two Fed rate cuts this year, with the first expected in June. At the same time, a potential acceleration in inflation may significantly limit the regulator’s room for monetary easing. An additional argument in favour of a more accommodative policy stance came from the nonfarm payrolls report. Job creation in December came in below forecasts, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts and confirming a weakening US labour market.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to decline. Sellers are holding the price below the EMA-65, indicating that the bearish momentum remains strong.

The EURUSD forecast for today suggests continued downward movement with a target at 1.1555. The Stochastic Oscillator further supports the bearish scenario. The signal lines turned downwards after rebounding from overbought territory and formed a crossover, confirming increasing pressure from sellers.

Consolidation below 1.1605 will confirm the continued decline.

Summary

The EURUSD pair failed to gain a foothold above the 1.1695 resistance level, and as a result the price continues to trend downwards. Technical analysis of EURUSD indicates that the bearish scenario will continue, with a high probability of further decline towards 1.1555.

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