EURUSD on the verge of growth: US GDP data may change the trend

The euro is gaining momentum again, with the EURUSD rate testing the 1.1680 level. Find more details in our analysis for 22 January 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US GDP: previously at 3.8%, projected at 4.3%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 198 thousand, projected at 209 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 22 January 2026: 1.1740

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the euro is forming an upward wave and is trading near the 1.1680 level.

GDP represents the total value of all goods and services produced in a country, calculated based on final output excluding the cost of raw materials.

The fundamental outlook for 22 January 2026 appears partially optimistic for the USD and suggests that actual US GDP data for Q3 may increase to 4.3%, up from the previous value of 3.8%. At the same time, it should be noted that this data relates to the previous year and may be considered partially outdated. However, if the actual reading in the current reporting period turns out to be lower than forecast, this may negatively affect the USD, pushing the EURUSD rate higher.

US initial jobless claims reflect the number of people who filed claims for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment. The previous value stood at 198 thousand. The forecast for 22 January 2026 suggests that claims may rise to 209 thousand. While the change is not critical, actual data deviating from the forecast, combined with other US fundamental indicators, may exert additional pressure on the USD.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band. At this stage, it may develop an upward wave as the signal plays out. Since quotes remain within the ascending channel, the pair may move towards the 1.1740 level. A breakout above this level would open the door for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, the EURUSD forecast for today also considers an alternative scenario, where the price dips towards 1.1655 without testing the resistance level.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1740 and 1.1800
• Key support levels: 1.1620 and 1.1580

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 1.1740 will confirm continued upward momentum after the consolidation phase and indicate market readiness to continue growth. The move is supported by US dollar weakness amid the trade conflict between the US and the EU and deteriorating US economic indicators.

The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2.

• Buy Stop: 1.1745
• Take Profit: 1.1850
• Stop Loss: 1.1700

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A move and consolidation below 1.1700 will signal weakening bullish momentum and indicate a corrective pullback after the sharp rise.

• Sell Stop: 1.1650
• Take Profit: 1.1580
• Stop Loss: 1.1670

Risk factors

Despite the current pressure on the US dollar, strong US macroeconomic data or a softening of trade rhetoric from the Trump administration may restore investor interest in the US currency and limit the upside potential of the EURUSD pair.

Summary

US economic data may once again weaken the USD. Technical analysis of EURUSD suggests growth towards the 1.1740 level.

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