Eurozone GDP is falling – will EURUSD decline?

The EURUSD pair continues its correction while awaiting data from the US and the eurozone, with quotes testing the 1.1925 level. Discover more in our analysis for 30 January 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Eurozone GDP: previously at 1.4%, projected at 1.2%
• US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December: previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.2%
• EURUSD forecast for 30 January 2026: 1.2045 and 1.1880

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that after a sharp rise, the price continues to correct today, trading near the 1.1925 level.

GDP represents the total value of all goods and services produced in a country, calculated based on final output excluding the cost of raw materials.

The forecast for 30 January 2026 looks rather pessimistic and suggests that eurozone GDP may decline to 1.2% from the previous 1.4%. If the actual figure in the current reporting period meets or falls below the forecast, this may negatively affect the euro and trigger further correction in the EURUSD pair.

The Producer Price Index serves as an inflation indicator by measuring the average change in prices of goods and services at the producer level. It reflects prices from the sellers’ perspective and covers three production sectors: manufacturing, raw materials, and processing. Since rising producer costs may be passed on to consumers, the PPI is often considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The forecast for 30 January 2026 takes into account that US PPI data may remain at the previous level of 0.2%. The outlook for US economic indicators cannot be called positive, but if there is no actual deterioration in the data, this may provide some support to the USD and trigger a decline in the EURUSD rate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price continues its corrective wave following the pattern’s signal. Since quotes remain within the ascending channel, they may move towards 1.1880. A rebound from this level would open the way for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the pair rises to 1.2045 without testing the support level.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.2045 and 1.2065
• Key support levels: 1.1880 and 1.1850

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Conditions for opening long positions will form after the EURUSD pair consolidates above the 1.1980 level, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.

The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:3. Upside potential is around 100 pips, with a limited risk of 30 pips.

• Take Profit: 1.2080
• Stop Loss: 1.1930

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A decline and consolidation below 1.1880 will indicate a breakout below the support level. In this case, the risks of a deeper bearish correction increase.

• Take Profit: 1.1780
• Stop Loss: 1.1910

Risk factors

Risks to further EURUSD growth are related to the possibility that the USD may receive unexpected support from fundamental data and enter a strengthening phase, which would lead the EURUSD pair to extend its corrective wave.

Summary

Weak economic indicators in the eurozone continue to weigh on the euro. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a price correction towards the 1.1880 level before growth.

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