The ECB decision may trigger EURUSD growth

The market is awaiting the ECB’s interest rate decision. The rate currently stands at 1.1785. Find out more in our analysis for 5 February 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• ECB interest rate decision: previously at 2.15%, projected at 2.15%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 209 thousand, projected at 212 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 5 February 2026: 1.1870

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the price is forming a corrective wave and is trading around the 1.1785 level.

Fundamental analysis for 5 February 2026 considers that the ECB’s interest rate decision will be announced today. The preliminary outlook is neutral: the ECB may leave the interest rate unchanged at 2.15%, which could be a negative factor for the euro. Foreign investors are typically attracted by higher interest rates; if the rate remains unchanged, a short-term capital outflow from the eurozone and weaker demand for the euro are possible. At the same time, investors may interpret this as a sign of economic stabilisation in the EU, which could allow the euro to temporarily strengthen against the USD.

US initial jobless claims reflect the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment. The previous value was 209 thousand, while the forecast for 5 February 2026 is less optimistic, with claims expected to rise to 212 thousand. The change is not critical, but the increase in claims may still affect the EURUSD pair, weakening the USD.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair is developing a corrective wave following the pattern’s signal. Since quotes remain within an ascending channel, they may head towards the 1.1750 level. A rebound from this level would open the door for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests an alternative scenario, in which the price rises towards 1.1870 without testing the support level.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.2000 and 1.2050
• Key support levels: 1.1770 and 1.1680

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

After consolidating near the 1.1805 resistance level, the EURUSD pair may form an impulsive growth wave. Consolidation above the 1.1865 level will confirm a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending correction and indicate the market’s readiness to resume a sustainable upward move, with a target at 1.1985. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:4. Potential profit at the take-profit level is 215 pips, while possible losses are limited to 35 pips.

• Buy Stop: 1.1835
• Take Profit: 1.2050
• Stop Loss: 1.1800

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 1.1750 will indicate a breakout of the key support level and increase the risk of a deeper corrective wave, casting doubt on further bullish movement in EURUSD.

• Take Profit: 1.1650
• Stop Loss: 1.1800

Risk factors

Stronger demand for the US dollar amid the resumption of US government operations and the release of strong macroeconomic data could restore support for the dollar and trigger a corrective decline in the pair. An additional risk to the bullish scenario would be an ECB interest rate hike.

Summary

Ahead of the ECB’s interest rate decision, the EURUSD pair is forming a corrective move. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a rise towards the 1.1870 level after the correction is complete.

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