EURUSD on the verge of reversal: how economic data and ECB policy may change the rate

The euro expects support from the ECB for economic growth in the eurozone, with the EURUSD pair testing the 1.1835 level. Find more details in our analysis for 17 February 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Easing inflation and slower job growth are putting pressure on the Federal Reserve’s decisions
• The ECB may support economic growth in the eurozone
• EURUSD forecast for 17 February 2026: 1.1925 and 1.1810

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the price continues its downward wave, trading around 1.1835 today.

Key triggers influencing the EURUSD rate:

• Weak US economic data is expected to continue pressuring the dollar. Lower inflation and slower job growth give investors grounds to revise expectations for future Fed interest rate decisions
• Ahead of potential ECB statements, market participants should monitor any signals regarding changes in monetary policy. If the ECB confirms its commitment to supporting economic growth in the eurozone, this may strengthen the euro
• Data on economic growth and consumer spending in eurozone countries may influence the overall EURUSD performance. If the news is positive, the euro may strengthen against the USD
• Tensions in the Middle East and other international developments continue to increase demand for the euro as a relatively safe currency compared to the USD, which may become an additional trigger for EURUSD growth

Thus, the analysis for 17 February 2026 takes into account that the EURUSD rate depends on the political and economic situation in Europe and the ongoing weakening of the US dollar, which creates conditions for euro appreciation.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Doji reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band and may continue its downward movement following the pattern signal. As quotes remain within an ascending channel, they may head towards 1.1810. A rebound from this level will open the door for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, the EURUSD outlook for today also considers an alternative scenario, in which the price climbs towards 1.1925 without testing the support level.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1925 and 1.2000
• Key support levels: 1.1810 and 1.1775

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Limit)

A pullback to the 1.1810 support level would create conditions for opening long positions with a target near 1.1925. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:4. Upon reaching the take-profit level, the potential profit will be around 115 pips, while possible losses are capped at 25 pips, making the trade attractive from a risk management perspective.

• Take Profit: 1.1925
• Stop Loss: 1.1785

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A decline followed by consolidation below the 1.1775 level would increase selling pressure. This signal will indicate the loss of short-term support and may trigger a deeper correction with strengthening downward momentum.

• Take Profit: 1.1690
• Stop Loss: 1.1810

Risk factors

Risk factors for EURUSD growth include the possibility of renewed inflationary pressure in the US and a revision of market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. An additional negative signal for the bullish scenario will be the pair’s failure to consolidate above 1.1925 or a breakout below the 1.1810 support level, which may trigger a corrective decline.

Summary

The euro continues its correction amid expectations of support from the ECB. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a pullback towards the 1.1810 support area before a potential rise.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.