EURUSD: US tariff threats may be serious

The EURUSD pair has retreated to 1.1776. Tariff wars are back at the forefront of market attention. Discover more in our analysis for 24 February 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is moving lower amid US geopolitical uncertainty
• The US has once again escalated the tariff issue
• EURUSD forecast for 24 February 2026: 1.1740

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is moderately declining towards 1.1776 on Tuesday. Investors continue to assess uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.

Among the latest developments is a lawsuit filed by logistics giant FedEx seeking a full refund after the US Supreme Court overturned President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. In response, over the weekend, Trump threatened to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%. He also warned that countries that ‘play games’ with existing trade agreements could face tougher measures.

The changing trade agenda is fuelling concerns that existing agreements may be revised. At the same time, key partners continue to comply with arrangements made with Washington.

Geopolitically, attention is focused on renewed US-Iran talks scheduled to resume on Thursday.

The EURUSD outlook is moderately negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair is gradually declining after a local rise towards the 1.1920–1.1930 area. A series of lower highs has formed from the peak, indicating a corrective move.

The price is currently trading around 1.1775–1.1780, near the lower Bollinger Band. Volatility remains moderate, and the bands are slightly sloping downwards. The nearest support lies in the 1.1740–1.1750 zone, and the resistance level is located around 1.1835.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the lower part of the range without a clear reversal signal. MACD remains in negative territory, and the histogram stays weak, confirming continued moderate selling pressure.

Overall, the structure appears to be a correction within a broader move, with a short-term bearish bias.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately bearish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1835 and 1.1900
• Key support levels: 1.1745 and 1.1695

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Limit)

A rebound from the 1.1835 resistance level may trigger a renewed decline towards 1.1695. The potential move is about 140 pips (1.1835 → 1.1695) with a risk of 40 pips (stop-loss at 1.1875), resulting in a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:3.5.

• Sell Limit: 1.1835
• Take Profit: 1.1695
• Stop Loss: 1.1875

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 1.1835 would signal weakening sellers and create conditions for growth towards 1.1900.

• Buy Stop: 1.1835
• Take Profit: 1.1900
• Stop Loss: 1.1795

Risk factors

Risks to the downside scenario include weak US data or a softer Federal Reserve tone. A consolidation above 1.1835 would serve as a technical signal invalidating the short-term bearish pressure.

Summary

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure on Tuesday, with the forecast for today, 24 February 2026, suggesting a continued decline towards 1.1740.

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