EURUSD on the rise: Germany’s GDP may provide additional support for the euro

Amid expectations of data from the US and the eurozone, the EURUSD pair continues its upward trajectory, with quotes testing the 1.1800 level. Discover more in our analysis for 25 February 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 1.9%, projected at 1.7%
• Germany’s GDP: previously at 0.0%, projected at 0.3%
• EURUSD forecast for 25 February 2026: 1.1880

Fundamental analysis

Today’s EURUSD outlook takes into account that the pair continues its upward momentum, trading around 1.1800.

GDP represents the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country, calculated based on end products, excluding the cost of raw materials.

The forecast for 25 February 2026 appears optimistic, suggesting that Germany’s GDP may increase to 0.3%, up from the previous 0.0%. If the actual figure meets or exceeds expectations, it could have a positive impact on the euro and trigger further growth in the EURUSD pair.

The Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping to assess purchasing trends and economic stagnation. A weaker-than-expected reading typically negatively affects the national currency.

The forecast for 25 February 2026 suggests that eurozone CPI may decline compared to the previous period, from 1.9% to around 1.7%. However, fundamental analysis also considers that if the CPI rises compared to the previous period, this could provide additional support for the euro.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and continues its upward wave as the pattern plays out. Since quotes remain within an ascending channel, the price may head towards 1.1880. A breakout above this level would open the way for further upward movement.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario involving a pullback towards 1.1750 before renewed growth.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1880 and 1.2000
• Key support levels: 1.1750 and 1.1680

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 1.1880 resistance level may trigger renewed growth towards 1.2000. The potential move is about 120 pips with a risk of 30 pips, giving a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:4.

• Buy Stop: 1.1880
• Take Profit: 1.2000
• Stop Loss: 1.1850

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 1.1750 would signal weakening buyer momentum and create conditions for a decline towards the 1.1680 support level.

• Sell Stop: 1.1750
• Take Profit: 1.1680
• Stop Loss: 1.1780

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario include strong US data or more hawkish Fed commentary. Consolidation below 1.1750 would serve as a technical signal invalidating the upward move.

Summary

The euro is making another attempt to strengthen against the USD, with Germany’s GDP growth potentially acting as a trigger. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a move towards the 1.1880 resistance level.

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