Market on hold: how Germany’s CPI and US PPI may affect EURUSD

Ahead of key data releases from the eurozone and the US, the EURUSD pair is forming a correction and trading near 1.1800. Find more details in our analysis for 27 February 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Germany’s CPI for January: previously at 0.1%, projected at 0.5%
• US PPI: previously at 0.5%, projected at 0.3%
• EURUSD forecast for 27 February 2026: 1.1880

Fundamental analysis

Today’s EURUSD outlook takes into account that the pair continues its corrective move and is trading around 1.1800.

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers and helps assess purchasing trends and the level of stagnation in the economy. A stronger-than-expected figure will negatively impact the European currency.

The forecast for 27 February 2026 suggests the CPI may rise to 0.5%, up from the previous reading of 0.1%. If the actual data exceeds expectations, it could push the EURUSD rate higher.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is an inflation indicator measuring the average change in prices for goods and services produced by domestic manufacturers. It tracks price changes from the seller’s perspective and covers three sectors: manufacturing, commodities, and processing. As higher production costs may be passed on to consumers, the PPI is often considered a leading inflation indicator. According to forecasts, the US PPI may decline to 0.3% from the previous 0.5%. If the actual figure comes in below expectations, it could put additional pressure on the US dollar.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, it is developing a correction before the signal plays out. Since quotes remain within an ascending channel, they could head towards 1.1880. A breakout above this level would open the way for further upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario, with the price pulling back towards 1.1755 before renewed growth.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1880 and 1.2040
• Key support levels: 1.1755 and 1.1680

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1880 resistance level would create conditions for opening long positions. The potential move is around 160 pips with a risk of 30 pips, resulting in a risk-to-reward ratio of more than 1:5.

• Take Profit: 1.2040
• Stop Loss: 1.1850

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 1.1755 may trigger a downward wave.

• Take Profit: 1.1680
• Stop Loss: 1.1785

Risk factors

Strong US macroeconomic data releases will increase risks to the bullish scenario, supporting the dollar and limiting EURUSD’s upside potential.

Summary

Ahead of key data from the eurozone and the US, the EURUSD pair is forming a corrective wave. Technical analysis suggests a potential rise towards 1.1880 after the correction.

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