EURUSD on the path to growth: eurozone and US PMIs to lift or drop the rate

An increase in the eurozone PMI could trigger growth in the EURUSD pair, with the rate currently standing at 1.1760. Discover more in our analysis for 2 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Eurozone manufacturing PMI: previously at 49.5, projected at 50.7
• US manufacturing PMI: previously at 52.4, projected at 51.2
• EURUSD forecast for 2 March 2026: 1.1750 and 1.1880

Fundamental analysis

Today’s EURUSD outlook takes into account that the pair continues to develop a corrective wave, trading near 1.1760.

The manufacturing PMI is a key indicator measuring sentiment and activity among purchasing managers in industrial companies. As these specialists are directly involved in supply chains and production processes, their assessments serve as an early signal for the broader economy. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the sector, while a value below 50.0 signals contraction.

Fundamental analysis for 2 March 2026 takes into account that the eurozone manufacturing PMI could rise to 50.7 from the previous 49.5. A move back above the 50.0 threshold would mark a return to expansion territory and could provide support for the euro, potentially driving the EURUSD pair higher.

The forecast for 2 March 2026 also factors in the US PMI data release due today. The indicator is projected to decline to 51.2 from the previous 52.4. Although the reading is expected to remain above 50.0, a slowdown compared to the previous figure may weaken the USD against the euro.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. The price is currently developing a correction before the pattern plays out. As quotes continue to move sideways and remain within an ascending channel, they could head towards 1.1880. A breakout above this level would open the way for a stronger uptrend.

However, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario, with a pullback towards 1.1750 before renewed growth.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1880 and 1.2040
• Key support levels: 1.1750 and 1.1680

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1880 resistance level would create conditions for opening long positions. The potential move is around 160 pips with a risk of 30 pips, resulting in a risk-to-reward ratio of more than 1:5.

• Take Profit: 1.2040
• Stop Loss: 1.1850

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 1.1750 may trigger a downward wave.

• Take Profit: 1.1680
• Stop Loss: 1.1785

Risk factors

Strong US macroeconomic data would increase risks to the bullish scenario, supporting the dollar and pushing the EURUSD pair lower.

Summary

Ahead of eurozone and US data releases, the EURUSD rate is forming a correction. Technical analysis suggests potential growth towards 1.1880 after a pullback.

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