EURUSD forms steady downward momentum

The EURUSD rate remains under pressure amid rising geopolitical risks and increased demand for the US dollar, currently standing at 1.1665. Discover more in our analysis for 3 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Investors are increasing their investments in safe-haven assets, boosting demand for the US dollar
• Rising energy prices are intensifying inflation risks in the US
• Inflation expectations reduce the likelihood of imminent Federal Reserve policy easing
• EURUSD forecast for 3 March 2026: 1.1555

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate has declined for the second consecutive trading session. Sellers have firmly consolidated below 1.1705 and are increasing pressure towards the next key support level at 1.1575. The technical picture indicates continued downward momentum and prevailing bearish sentiment.

The US dollar is supported by capital inflows into safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions. Markets are reacting to the risks of further escalation in the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. According to reports from a senior US official, Washington is preparing for a significant intensification of attacks against Iran, which strengthens demand for the USD and adds to pressure on the EURUSD pair.

Rising energy prices also support the US currency. Higher oil and gas prices increase inflation risks, reducing the likelihood of near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Expectations of prolonged high interest rates in the US support yields on US assets and enhance the attractiveness of the dollar.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is testing the lower boundary of the descending channel, while sellers are attempting to consolidate below 1.1665. Pressure on the pair persists, indicating bearish control in the short term.

Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests further decline towards 1.1555. Before that, a minor correction towards the upper boundary of the descending channel is possible, after which sellers may regain momentum. The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator confirms increasing selling pressure. At the same time, the indicator is already in oversold territory, signalling a high probability of a short-term correction before a decline.

A confident breakout below the local support level with consolidation below 1.1635 will confirm the main scenario. In this case, the market will receive an additional signal for a sustained downward momentum.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1685 and 1.1795
• Key support levels: 1.1665 and 1.1585

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the local support level with consolidation below 1.1655 would create conditions for opening short positions. The downside potential is around 100 pips with a risk of 25 pips, providing a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:4.

• Take Profit: 1.1555
• Stop Loss: 1.1680

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A rapid rise with consolidation above 1.1680 may trigger a bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1785
• Stop Loss: 1.1680

Risk factors

A de-escalation of the geopolitical conflict and reduced demand for safe-haven assets could weaken the US dollar and pose a risk to the bearish scenario. An additional threat to the downward momentum would be the failure of sellers to consolidate below 1.1635 and a return above the 1.1705 resistance level, which could trigger an aggressive bullish correction.

Summary

Rising geopolitical tensions and increasing inflation risks continue to support the US dollar. EURUSD technical analysis indicates continued downward momentum, with a possible short-term correction, followed by a decline towards 1.1555, if the price consolidates below 1.1635.

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