EURUSD under pressure: no appetite for risk

The EURUSD pair has been falling for three consecutive days, reaching 1.1599 as the market increasingly favours the US dollar. Find more details in our analysis for 4 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is declining due to elevated external risks
• The market is actively revising its expectations for the Fed rate
• EURUSD forecast for 4 March 2026: 1.1528

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is moving lower to 1.1599, with the sell-off continuing for the third consecutive session. The US dollar is supported by concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could keep energy prices elevated and intensify inflationary pressure.

Against this backdrop, traders are revising their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate policy. The market now shifts the forecast for the next rate cut from July to September while still pricing in two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year.

Additional support for the dollar comes from demand for safe-haven assets: the US and Israel’s war against Iran has entered its fifth phase. On Tuesday, Israel struck a building where religious leaders were meeting to discuss the selection of a new supreme leader.

US President Donald Trump stated that such attacks could lead to a change of power in Iran; however, a new regime might prove no less problematic, highlighting uncertainty about the conflict’s future.

The dollar is strengthening across the board, posting its strongest gains against the euro and commodity-linked currencies this week.

The outlook for the EURUSD pair is negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, after a period of sideways consolidation in the 1.1760–1.1830 range, the EURUSD pair formed a pronounced downward momentum. The price stayed below the 1.1833 resistance level for an extended period before selling pressure intensified and quotes sharply broke below the 1.1740 support level, accelerating the decline.

Since late February, the movement has become impulsive, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. The expansion of Bollinger Bands accompanied this phase, indicating increased volatility and strengthening bearish momentum. The decline extended to the 1.1528–1.1560 area, where the market formed a local low and a technical rebound occurred.

Currently, the pair is trading around 1.1599, slightly recovering after the sharp drop. However, the price remains below the middle Bollinger Band, confirming persistent selling pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards from oversold territory, signalling a short-term correction. MACD remains in negative territory and continues to generate downward momentum.

The nearest resistance level lies in the 1.1650–1.1680 area, which previously acted as a breakout zone and the lower boundary of the former consolidation, while stronger resistance remains at 1.1833. The key support level is located at 1.1528. As long as prices stay below 1.1650, the overall H4 structure remains bearish, and the current rebound appears to be a technical correction after a strong sell-off.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1650 and 1.1680
• Key support levels: 1.1560 and 1.1528

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 1.1560 would confirm continued downward momentum after a series of lower highs and lower lows, creating conditions for further decline towards 1.1528. The potential move is about 30–35 pips with a risk of approximately 15–20 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio is close to 1:2.

• Take Profit: 1.1528
• Stop Loss: 1.1605

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1650 would indicate a deeper technical correction after the strong sell-off and open the way towards 1.1680.

• Take Profit: 1.1680
• Stop Loss: 1.1610

Risk factors

A de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and reduced demand for safe-haven assets could weaken support for the dollar and pose a risk to the bearish scenario. Expectations regarding Fed policy will also play a role, with more dovish signals from the regulator potentially triggering a recovery in the EURUSD rate.

Summary

The EURUSD pair remains in the grip of downward momentum. The forecast for today, 4 March 2026, suggests a move towards 1.1528.

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