Rising unemployment in the US could trigger EURUSD growth

Ahead of US economic data releases, the USD continues to strengthen against the euro, with the EURUSD pair trading around 1.1590. Find out more in our analysis for 5 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 212 thousand, projected at 215 thousand
• US continuing jobless claims: previously at 1.833 million, projected at 1.850 million
• EURUSD forecast for 5 March 2026: 1.1530

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair is forming a corrective wave today, trading around 1.1590.

US initial jobless claims reflect the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase indicating rising unemployment. The previous reading was 212 thousand. The forecast for 5 February 2026 suggests that claims may rise to 215 thousand. The change is not critical; however, actual data differing from the forecast, combined with other US macroeconomic indicators, could put additional pressure on the USD.

Continuing jobless claims reflect the total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits after filing initial claims. Fundamental analysis for 5 February 2026 shows that the number of claims may increase to 1.850 million, which, compared to the previous period, does not appear positive for the US dollar. The actual figure may differ from the forecast, but if it comes out worse than the previous value, it could trigger US dollar weakness.

Macroeconomic forecasts from the US are not encouraging, yet the USD continues to strengthen against the euro.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair is forming a correction following the signal from the pattern. The pullback target could be the 1.1670 level.

Given that prices continue to decline and have broken out of the ascending channel, they may head towards 1.1530 after the correction is completed. A breakout below this level would open the way for a continued downward movement.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1670 and 1.1750
• Key support levels: 1.1530 and 1.1400

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 1.1530 would confirm continued downward momentum, creating conditions for further selling and a decline towards 1.1400. The potential move is about 130 pips with a risk of approximately 20 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:6.

• Take Profit: 1.1400
• Stop Loss: 1.1550

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1670 would indicate a deeper technical correction after the strong sell-off and open the way towards 1.1750.

• Take Profit: 1.1750
• Stop Loss: 1.1640

Risk factors

A de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and reduced demand for safe-haven assets could weaken support for the dollar and pose a risk to the bearish scenario. Weak macroeconomic data from the US would also have an additional impact.

Summary

The euro continues to lose ground amid expectations of US employment data. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards 1.1530 after the correction.

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