EURUSD remains under pressure due to safe-haven demand

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure amid rising inflation risks, which supports demand for the US dollar. The rate currently stands at 1.1637. Discover more in our analysis for 11 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Geopolitical uncertainty around the Middle East conflict is boosting demand for safe-haven assets and supporting the US dollar
• Rising energy prices are increasing inflation risks in the eurozone
• Market uncertainty remains high, and volatility is elevated
• EURUSD forecast for 11 March 2026: 1.1525

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is attempting to rebound, but sellers continue to defend the 1.1650 resistance level, preventing the pair from consolidating above this level. Correction attempts remain limited, with the pair still under pressure from a strong US dollar. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict is increasing demand for safe-haven assets, providing additional support for the US currency. At the same time, investors are awaiting the release of key US inflation data, which should clarify the current price dynamics. Market participants do not expect the figures to reflect the impact of the conflict with Iran yet.

Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the ECB is ready to take all necessary measures to contain inflation despite the recent rise in energy prices. According to her, Europe is now better prepared for a new energy shock thanks to more effective government policy and stronger resilience in the region’s economy. However, Lagarde also emphasised that uncertainty remains high and financial markets continue to experience elevated volatility.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate is undergoing a correction within a descending channel. Buyers have attempted several times to break and hold above the 1.1650 resistance level, but each attempt has failed, increasing selling pressure. The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a continued decline towards 1.1525. The technical picture is gradually shifting in favour of the bears, as the market shows signs of weakening upward momentum.

The Stochastic Oscillator signals increasing downside pressure. The oscillator has reached overbought territory, formed a bearish crossover, and bounced off the resistance line. This combination indicates a heightened probability of another downward move. A confident breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish correction channel, with prices consolidating below 1.1605, will further confirm the baseline scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests a breakout above the upper boundary of the bullish channel and consolidation above 1.1675. This scenario would indicate weakening selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a renewed upward move.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downtrend
• Key resistance levels: 1.1655 and 1.1745
• Key support levels: 1.1600 and 1.1535

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish correction channel, with prices consolidating below 1.1605, would create conditions for opening short positions. The potential move is about 80 pips with a risk of around 40 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:2.

• Take Profit: 1.1525
• Stop Loss: 1.1645

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1675 would signal a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a bullish correction in the EURUSD pair.

• Take Profit: 1.1735
• Stop Loss: 1.1605

Risk factors

Risks to the EURUSD bearish scenario are linked to potential US dollar weakness following softer-than-expected US inflation data, which could dampen expectations of a hawkish Fed stance. An additional invalidation signal for the downside scenario would be a confident breakout and consolidation above 1.1675, indicating weaker selling pressure and potentially triggering a move higher.

Summary

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure from a strong US dollar, while the 1.1650 resistance level continues to cap gains. EURUSD technical analysis indicates risks of a continued decline towards 1.1525 as long as selling pressure persists.

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