EURUSD under pressure: US GDP and rising inflation could send the euro lower

The USD continues to strengthen against the euro ahead of key US macroeconomic data, with the EURUSD rate testing the 1.1500 level. Find more details in our analysis for 13 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Q4 GDP: previously at 1.4%, projected at 1.4%
• US core PCE price index: previously at 3.0%, projected at 3.1%
• EURUSD forecast for 13 March 2026: 1.1430 and 1.1570

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the price continues its downward trajectory today, trading around 1.1500.

GDP is the total value of all goods and services sold in a country, calculated using final output and excluding the cost of raw materials.

The forecast for 13 March 2026 looks optimistic and suggests that US GDP for Q4 may remain unchanged at 1.4%. If the actual figure for the current reporting period is in line with or above the forecast, this could support the USD and push the EURUSD pair lower.

The US core PCE price index reflects changes in the cost of a basket of goods and services that are actually consumed by US households. This indicator is widely known as the PCE deflator and is used to assess underlying inflation trends in the economy.

Unlike some other inflation indicators, the core PCE uses a broader approach to measuring consumption: it includes both actual household spending and imputed expenses, covering durable and non-durable goods and a wide range of services. At the same time, food and energy prices are excluded because their high volatility can distort the overall inflation picture.

Today’s EURUSD forecast also considers that the US core PCE could rise to 3.1% from 3.0%. The projected increase is not critical, but if the actual data comes in above expectations, it could support the USD and trigger further declines in the EURUSD pair.

Overall, the forecast for 13 March 2026 favours the USD: despite geopolitical conflicts and the global economic environment, the USD continues to strengthen against the euro.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, while pulling back, the EURUSD pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair continues its downward momentum as the signal plays out. The downside target may be the 1.1430 level.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario in which the price undergoes a correction towards 1.1570 before the decline.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1570 and 1.1650
• Key support levels: 1.1430 and 1.1400

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 1.1500 would confirm a continued downtrend. Pressure on the euro remains amid higher oil prices, which increase inflation risks and reduce the likelihood of imminent policy easing by the Federal Reserve. The move potential is about 70 pips with a risk of around 25 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio is close to 1:3.

• Take Profit: 1.1430
• Stop Loss: 1.1525

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation above 1.1570 may signal a corrective wave. In this case, the pair could test the next resistance area.

• Take Profit: 1.1650
• Stop Loss: 1.1545

Risk factors

Rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions support the US dollar. An additional factor is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the next meeting and deliver only one possible rate cut this year. Risks to the bearish scenario could emerge if the dollar weakens or if the Fed delivers more dovish signals.

Summary

The euro continues to lose ground against the USD ahead of US data releases. EURUSD technical analysis suggests further declines towards the 1.1430 support level.

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